Perhaps that's the case, but I'd be surprised if Chase was spending more than $300 per account in this (or any) case, which would cap their purchase price (from BA) at around .3 cpm.

Using this valuation, they are effectively receiving $75 for the passenger that flies MIA-PVG on AA (25k Y award), which I'm pretty sure is less than the marginal cost of transporting him (e.g. he consumes more than $75 in food, fuel, and employee resources v. his otherwise empty seat).

Same goes for BOS-LAX at $37.50.

While I acknowledge that these examples are more extreme (in the cost department) than the average redemption, the fact that they exist suggests that people like redtailshark could indeed force BA to lose money in certain situations.

BTW, it wouldn't surprise me if BA was participating on the revenue side of its Chase deal. If so, it might fare pretty well in the process (i.e. every person that runs his card up to $30k and carries a balance cancels out 30 FTers that spend $2k, pay off $2k, and fly to HK).