Nah I dont think that would be the reason for CI or BR not to join an alliance. Relations with Taiwan have been improving especially with the launch of scheduled flights and they already have been cooperating with CZ (groundhandling, maintenance etc). Flights have been increasing on both sides with new destinations available in both China and Taiwan. Plus especially now with the recession both sides could use the boost(more Taiwan). Taiwans new government is pro-China so we might see their entry around 2011?

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...16-704402.html