Here are the questions regarding intl fares and upgrades that the carriers are trying to figure out together with answers in CAPS.
1) How many full fare paying C passengers will I lose if UGs are to easy get. NONE. NO ONE PAYS FULL FARE C EXCEPT ON THE CORPORATE NICKEL. THERE IS NO INCENTIVE FOR THE PAX TO SWITCH EVEN IF UPGRADES ARE EASY. BETTER TO SAVE YOUR MILES AND SWU FOR PERSONAL/ FAMILY TRAVEL.
2) How many people currently buying Y and discount Y can I force into buying full fare C by making Y unpleasant and UGs hard to get. NONE. NOBODY IS GOING TO PAY THE RIDICULOUS FARES FOR C NO MATTER WHAT UNLESS THE COMPANY PAYS FOR IT... IN WHICH THEY ARE ALREADY BUYING C.
3) How many people won't fly if they can't get reliable UGs or reasonably priced discount business tickets. A LOT. CARRIERS ARE TOTALLY UNDERESTIMATING THE THE AMOUNT OF TRAVEL PEOPLE FOREGO BECAUSE IT'S SO UNPLEASANT.
4) How many bosses, won't approve business trips because even though the company policy is to pay for C, the fares are so high they can't justify the cost. A TON. I HEAR IT ALL THE TIME.
5) How many pax currently playing the UG lottery or simply not traveling would fly a lot more or pay more if they could get reasonably priced biz class or get reliably upgraded. A LOT. I'D PREFER TO BUY REALLY CHEAP TICKETS WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AN UPGRADE, BUT I'D ALSO BE WILLING TO PAY $2500 TO $3000 (REASONABLE FARES) IF I WAS 100% CERTAIN TO GET THE UPGRADE.
In my view, the airlines are totally screwing this up. The number of full fare paying C passengers are way down. A lot of people won't fly because they hate the back of the bus, and as for Delta, FFs are leaving in droves because upgrades are either too expensive or too uncertain. If DL was smart, they'd have a program that
1) Allowed them to keep their C passengers.
2) Got many FFs to buy Z at reasonable fares rather than staying at home or relying on UGs on cheap fares as they do now.
3) Provided reliable but perhaps a reduced number of rewards for budget constrained FFs so they were relatively certain of getting upgrades.