My only concern with the slow-earn route to a higher hotel reward would be whether Marriott is going to rip the rug out from under you by changing the program when you are a few K short of your dream reward.

It's hard to use the 2-3 cents-per-point guideline when you earn points slowly and are starting with a small balance. Big bang-for-point usually happens at the high-end of the chart when 100,000 FF miles are part of the reward. If there's a great restaurant at your hotel that accepts the certs, and if you think you'd enjoy a $75-80 per person dinner there without worrying about the bill, then maybe it's not a bad idea to redeem for the meal. Not the highest rate of return, but you do achieve known value NOW.