A bit more HHonors info, to ensure OP has info needed:
Since you are looking at point-earning potential as well as point-spend requirements... and since credit card earnings are included, here is how HHonors compares:
Base points = 10 points / $1 at Hilton family properties
Double-dip = 1 airline mile / $1, can also choose add'l HHonors points instead = 5 points / $1
As you mentioned, Surpass card = 9 points / $1
With Surpass card, you get Gold membership 1st year = 25% bonus = 2.5 points / $1
With the above that equals 26.5 points / $1 (with Diamond status, could be 29 points / $1)
To fully compare programs you will need to evaluate your hotel stay patterns, because you could earn 500 points / stay by booking online with the Amex card. If you mainly do single- or few-night stays at lower-end properties, the 500-point bonus really jumps up. (that would also earn you status faster with HH over MR) You also have the option of taking bonus points instead of other amenities with certain chains. Then again, if you reach Marriott Platinum, and stay at higher-end properties and choose bonus points (e.g. 500) as your gift, then that may help. If you use your chosen credit card for gas, drug store, supermarket purchases, then Hilton Amex cards take a lead again.

A couple examples, and you take advantage of all above, and you are HH Diamond or MR Platinum,...
If your typical stay is 2 nights at a rate of $100/night, then
HH = $200 * 29 + 500 = 6300 points
MR = $200 * 20 + 500 = 4500 points

If your typical stay is 5 nights at $250/night, then
HH = $1250 * 29 + 500 = 36750
MR = $1250 * 20 + 500 = 25500

If you are HH Gold / MR Gold, you would not get MR Platinum welcome gift but could still get HH Amex booking bonus. Scenario 1 above
HH = $200 * 26.5 + 500 = 5800
MR = $200 * 17.5 = 3500

So as you can see, there are many factors to consider (and we haven't even discussed which chain has properties where you travel), almost enough to drive you crazy -- which I'm sure has happened to some of the FlyerTalk-ers already as they worked through the same thing as you.