Black is definitely worth it, IMHO, but it's a tough call under the cicumstances you describe. Upgrades to Concierge Floor are pretty common and gauranteed key access to the CF lounge can be very useful for quick breakfasts and occasionaly early evening snack. The free weekday breakfast(s) at places without a Concierge Floor Lounge can also add up! Good advice above from both PG and dg1 and I agree. I really don't like these kinds of choices, but either way it should be a good year!