Instead of looking at how many nights you are staying, try to look at how much you are spending since that determines how much points you get not the number of nights you stay.

If the bill, for the whole stay (regardless of whether you stayed 1 night or 3 nights) will get you 3,000 or more points, take the points.

3,000 points for one night is not impossible if you flew in on Marriott's partners (25% base points bonus) and/or you are elite with Marriott. It is also pretty easy to achieve if you spend the night in NYC.