PlasticIQ, that is a great comprehensive analysis of rewards points.

On thing that I do question is whether people overvalue their rewards points because they lock the member into using the points at a specific brand. There are many opportunities to stay at a similar quality hotel (using hotwire and better bidding) for half the rate that a Marriott offers, or just stay at a cheaper hotel, so the value is not always as simple as price of a Marriott room/points used.

That does take some of the fun out of things - I know I would never have paid 500Eur for the Marriott Champs-Elysee - if I did not have Marriott points, I would have found a 150EUR (or less) hotel and I would not have booked somewhat less desirable nights there either. That's a good reason to not Marriott CC on non-Marriott purchases.