Losing upgrades would take the heart out of the program and certainly foment a mass dissertion from Aeroplan ranks to another STAR program like United, or put RootsAir on an equal footing with AC and help them build market share. Afterall, how many of us would fly the new carrier if we knew we could get upgrades on AC for the same fare[or less] we pay on RootsAir? The biggest problem this new carrier will have is nudging us over from AC to try its services, knowing we have a clutch of upgrade certificates from Aeroplan.

AC knows upgrades are a key element of their program, but have also tried to keep the cachet of the front cabin by balancing upgrade opportunities with revenue-generating realities. AC officials have always claimed CP "gave away the front cabin", as it perceives US carriers to be doing. They were trying for a balance between the ultra- restrictive European/Asian carrier approach and the American one.

What is the point of loyalty to AC ifupgrading benefits are removed or restricted further? Miles in themselves are not enough, and access to MLL can be purchased. What other perks are their to elite status if it is not upgrades? Better access to award seats? [ Nor is another catalog of useless products we are already being "sold" by Holiday Inn and now Hilton, not to mention dozens of retailers, direct mail and internet merchants?]

While I know this is a trial balloon sent out to ellicit our reaction, last year's restriction of upgrade fares went far enough for most Elites/Golds. With respect to lack of J inventory, particularly as exemplified by recent postings, this is something found on the YYZ-LHR route primarily, and possibly on YVR-HKG. Otherwise, I cannot believe it is that significant a factor right across the sector. I do feel the current policy for SE's [at time of booking from most economy fares] is a bit extravagent [sorry BB, Dorian et al] and could be modified to 100-hours as is the case on many carriers, and was/is the case for EPs. But outright elimination is another matter.

I know there has also been talk of creating a credit bank for upgrades, and having a two-tier, and even three-tier, system: at booking for twice as many credits, elite advance confirmation for the basic number of credits.

Demand and use of upgrades by Elites/Golds cannot be that high, since we would only get 5 additional threshold packages in making 50K next year for requalification, in addition to the annual package of certificates. If they work as this year, we would only have enough for three return transcon domestics from discounted fares, and a few systemwides which might never get used if we don't pay the highest economy fares. [Yes, I know one could argue there are maybe 5- to10-times as many Es as SEs, accounting for the pressure on upgrade seats.]

So, the real question is how AC plans to alter SE benefits? The earlier trial balloon about four tiers was interesting in that SE-P was so ultra-generous, it would really give away the front cabin. Even SE benefits appear to me to be counter-productive in this regard: Why would I ever buy a full fare ticket (except to get around Saturday night restrictions, or if I need a "last-minute" flight) when I knew I could almost always be upgraded, and would have a steady stream of almost any-fare, system-wide certificates coming my way to replenish those I "spend" upgrading? It looks from the mid-level elite perspective to be a "perpetual motion machine". In fact, I believe Dorian has said as much in some of his postings, almost complaining that he can't use them all up. As has BB.

Were AC interested in increasing bookings and revenue, it would make sense to offer more upgrading benefits to Elites. This would encourage us to fly more than we do, even if paying less than full-fare. The 65K difference between E and SE is considerable -- even 50K will be a big jump if Elite qualifying levels are raised and SE remains at 100K -- particularly if one's travel is confined to NAmerica [and particularly domestic at 50% on all discount fares] and has one has limited overseas travel possibilties. [This anomaly is one AC said it recognized and was trying to address in redesigning the program.]

Much of the foregoing is just "thinking out loud", but I suppose that's what we're here for. Thanks for the info YYZAC. However, as it is now November, it is quite likely the new program is already firmed up and the guidebooks and upgrade certificates for 2001/2002 being sent off to the printers as we write. Mssrs Trudeau and Duchesne certainly know what they will be offering us next year. Ours is to speculate further for a while longer.

[This message has been edited by Shareholder (edited 11-04-2000).]