I agree with IK in Seattle. I also have never had an issue getting an FFN, even at Vendome, but I've booked far, far in advance and I try and have some flexibility.
At hotels like PH Vendome, PH Tokyo, or Kauai, I will often look for hotel availability first and then plan the rest of my vacation around what's available. Kelly: The program is incredibly generous; without these capacity controls, I think it wouldn't be possible.
There are also some beautiful hotels out there that are not so hard to get FFNs at. In Europe, I love the Berlin and Madrid Hyatts. In Asia, I think both the Grand Hyatt Hong Kong and the Grand Hyatt Erawan BKK are outstanding and much larger than PH Tokyo, so easier to get.
And with the exception of Kauai and Maui, I've found that most resorts are easily booked with a month or two advance notice.
Finally, Carmel is quite difficult to get because tons of Bay area folks like to head down for the weekend. I've had luck with Carmel over weekends a couple of times, very close to the date I want when they must release more inventory for FFNs or have cancellations.
[This message has been edited by kv99 (edited Feb 22, 2004).]