Originally Posted by
thadocta
In my example, 90% market share in a 20million market still leaves 1.8million for the others, enough to keep the market honest.
90% in a 20K market only leaves 1K for the competition, nowhere near enough to keep the market honest.
Getting back to this situation, I don't think it matters that LON-NYC is vastly bigger than anything out of FRA or CDG as far as competition issues go.
What I think matters (and I have read studies on this, can't find them at the moment, I am on somebody elses computer) is that it is the SIZE of the residual market (in passenger terms, not in % terms) which affects how competition issues will be addressed.
Dave
the destiny of every antitrust issue for OW has always been tied to competition at LHR, and this time won't be different. It is possible to have an honest appraisal on the current competition situation for CDG and FRA vis-a-vis to LHR or getting pointed to an indipendent study on the topic? From my point of view as a user, I would say for instance that fares to and from FRA from Italy are pretty steep, because there's an incumbent that has tight control over routes, virtually no competition on those and a big presence on nearly all useable airports nearby besides its hub. And also one of the main competitors at LHR has just been absorbed, routes and all by the same incumbent, that almost immediately changes many of its routes to feeders to its own hub...
In my opinion, both LH and AF have outsmarted BA in playing EU Antitrust, i do not remember a single decision against these two. I think it depends to the huge representation the governments of Germany and France in all matters pertaining EU. I read somewhere that ms. Kroes is near the end of her period as antitrust chief and a French national is slated to replace her, if confirmed is better for BA to quickly close the issue, otherwise there may be no way for further attempts.