Yes its quite a dumb question.. cos its almost like you want us to guarantee that CX will deliver your bag for you if you check it. But that's almost like asking someone if you mail something, will it get there, otherwise you won't mail it.

Well, there is no guarantee in anything.

Generally CX is very good with connecting luggage even with 50 mins connecting time in HKG. But anything really can happen...

If you are so unsure and worried about the check in luggage, then don't check in any luggage on your departure and just check in for your return.

What will happen is that you might be hand luggage restricted especially departing from asian cities. Hand luggage might have a weight restriction and if you exceed that, you must check it in irrespective if you were allowed to carry it on on your way here.