I book prepaid rates knowing I might well lose it all (and have--but only once, which my client reimbursed since they caused me not to be able to show up!). Sometimes you save a bundle and take the risk. Other times, there is only a 3-10 dollar difference and I say it is better to pay more as I know that changes to my life can happen even as close to 24 hours (the example above was a case in point) to the booking date. Hey it's only money . . .

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BlondeBomber's Star Lounge Guide
BlondeBomber's Star Alliance Gold Comparison Chart 2003
BlondeBomber's Hilton HHonors Rewards Hotel Levels (1 MB!)
BlondeBomber's Starwood Hotel Levels