I have a similar, but slightly different story. I was supposed to go yyz-yow-iad and due to yyz weather cancellations and delays ended up on yyz-dca. I need the two segments for the 40k promo. I've already been credited for yyz-dca and written Customer Service to get my originally booked points, but have not yet heard back (so much for their 2 day service policy).

I'm running out of time for the 40k promo so am wondering if a weather related irops will result in the same original segment compensation or if I'll be out of luck. If I don't hear back by Friday I'm actually contemplating paying a same day change fee to change this weekend's direct flight into a connection.

Should I bet on the correction or buy insurance? This flight is for my 25k threshold.