Y is sold out on that flight and 13 out of 20 F seats are already filled with a week to go. But you're not without hope. There are still quite a few premium seats open in Y, especially in the exit rows, which suggests a lower % of elites than might be typical for a flight out of EWR. I'd say the 1.4% for EUA and 15.6% for ultimately sitting in F is about right. (I'm sure ijgordon employed a rigorous scientific method to get these numbers.) Hopefully you already snagged an exit row or bulkhead seat.