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Old Jul 30, 2009 | 7:45 pm
  #4  
BackFromAwayAndBackAwayAgain
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 42
First of all, I don't think you will find many members on these forums (or on this website) that book their tickets 10 months in advance. In my opinion that's just outrageous!!! You might need to book at least 6 months in advance if you want any decent chance to book a reward with some of the other FFPs (like AFKL Flying Blue), but it just seems weird to book a fully paid C-tkt 10 months in advance. Whichever the airline you want to fly on.

Otherwise, as far as the fares/prices in the next cple of months is concerned, I think this will depend greatly on what happens with the whole swine flu situation. I am in Europe right now, and in the last couple of days I have been able to see for myself how many companies have now started to prepare for a VERY SERIOUS and VERY CONTRACTED pandemic: many people will get sick in very short periods of time, in very short successive waves.

Therefore a lot of companies have begun to put all further holiday planning on hold (no more leave) with severe limitations to any planned business trips, especially between the END OF AUGUST and the END OF OCTOBER. Some people have even been forced to cancel their already booked holidays. I am talking about big companies, hospitals, government institutions in the BeNeLux, France, Germany and the U.K. Also, contingencies are being drawn up where staff will replace each other, or where whole sections and departments will simply close shop for a couple of days or even weeks, with the remaining (fit and healthy) managers and workers staying on site, trying to fill in for the sick ones. It's a major economic/logistical/managerial challenge, and business travel and annual holidays will be one of the first things to be sacrificed. And then I am not even talking about any deadly and/or resistant mutations of the H1N1 virus.

Anyway: a lot of holiday and business related traveling (especially long haul) will be canceled. It is happening already... (!).

Also, any people that have yet to become sick will be far less inclined to book tickets, or to go on an intercontinental trip abroad.

Plus we all know how the health care system in some countries is really deficient.

And then there is the whole question of the vaccination campaigns,... and the number of doses required(!).

I believe that - in case some of the present (official) swine flu predictions come true - we will see many of the economy cabins flying virtually empty. Especially on long haul flights. Especially between SEP09-APR10.

On the other hand, on a higher level it's probably gonna be all hands on deck as well, with senior managers flying around, trying to stop gap some of the most pressing problems... filling the front cabins of the planes. Plus they are probably going to want to sit far away, isolated with a bit of distance between themselves and between them and the crew,... at least with nobody else seated next to them.

My prediction:
  • Look forward to many scheduled and unscheduled flight cancellations.
  • Look forward to many booking cancellations and other involuntary (re)bookings.
  • Look forward to a further increase in the fares for C and F.
  • Look forward to a new decrease in the fares for Y.

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