Originally Posted by
MichaelColey
So you think that Starwood is more likely to go bankrupt than American Express (if by MR you meant Membership Rewards)? I think they're both very unlikely to go bankrupt (both have positive earnings and cash flow), but with the problems in the banking industry I would be more worried about AXP. I have far more confidence in the viability of either of those than in any of the legacy airlines.
Berkshire owns Amex.
Even if Buffett lets go of Amex,
the US govt will not let Amex go bankrupt.
It is one of the chosen few. Mark my words.
So MR may ultimately be more valuable than SPG if you are passive.
But I think you can see it coming and move the points if need be.
I passed on Bear Stearns the day the govt stepped in for it.
I learned my lesson.
Warren Buffett stated in his annual report recently, that the markets think it is better to be a bankrupt company backed by the fed and allow it to borrow money at a low rate than a good company which has to borrrow money at high rates.
I bought Citi shares the day the Govt announced that they will "give up" their preferred shares and convert them to common stock valuing common stock at 10$ per share. It was trading at 1$, now about 3-4.^
Best decision I made. However,
this did not offset all my poor decisions in the past years yet.
