I too have a little spreadsheet somewhere...a little different from Guava's raw numbers but similar in conclusion.

Specifically, the conclusion: someone who actually does a huge number of actual hotel nights gets the biggest bang-for-buck from Hilton or Marriott. (In my analysis, these two were very close - perhaps because I was valuing the Travel Packages a bit higher.)

I've done a similar analysis for credit cards: someone who does few actual hotel nights gets their biggest value from SPG or HH Amex, with the two being very close. (I still give SPG the edge.) Marriott is a very distant third here, although the aforementioned Free Night Certificate still makes their card worthwhile.

The value of hotel points ebbs and flows. 2005-2007 was a prime period for me. Travel demand was up, so paid rates were high. I was able to hit a few special event and peak season redemptions that I could have never done without hotel points. The U.S. dollar was (and still is) weak in a lot of my destinations, further elevating the value of paying with an alternative currency like points.

The problem is that every prime period is followed by a big round of Category Creep, and in this case we also have an overall slowdown in travel demand worldwide. So 2009 is (in general) a lousy year to use hotel points - cheap rooms are too easy to find.

I'll continue to hoard in 2009 and redeem in 2010-2011. That's longer than I usually hold hotel points, but there seems to me to be little risk of a major Category Creep this year. Next year, when demand has rebounded, incredibly good paid promotions will be harder to find. Plus, I don't see the U.S. dollar suddenly getting wickedly strong against other world currencies. Our hotel points will be worth more in that timeframe...