Thanks for the input. Turns out one of the return legs on the UA option was on BA, so am going with NW. That will put me at about 35,000 for the year. One more africa jaunt should put me at mid-tier.

On the plus side, DL/NWA have a much better set of options for travel to Europe that UAL, and one can allways pay the $75 for econ plus on UA even w/out status.

I really don't understand these airlines that would rather fly empty biz seats than let non Y/B fares upgrade. American's model seems much more sensible, and probably generates some revenue to boot. Most of us do not have the luxury of employers who will buy full fare eonomy.