Originally Posted by
BA or bust
That was my thinking in the numbers I gave earlier. Golds tend to travel quite a lot, so I think most will be racking up considerably more than 1500 points (using the UK qualification level) and therefore most retain status (though some will fall back due to considerable corporate travel cuts).
However I think that Silvers (who probably do less l/h travel and are less able to accumulate tier points), probably typically earn around the 800-1000 or so tier points in a year. Even with leisure travel... it takes just one or two l/h flights less in a year (corporate travel) to drop them below 600 tier points. That is why I think that Silver number will drop proporortionately more this year.
But very interested to hear other views.
Especially a more accurate estimate of the amount of Golds and Silver now.
You seem to have reversed causality in your analysis. People don't travel less because they're Silver: they're Silver because they travel less. Similarly, people don't travel more because they're Gold, they're Gold because they travel more. In other words, your BAEC status doesn't determine how much travel you do, it's a
function of how much travel you do.
In a situation where
everyone is travelling less, or in lower fare classes, then you'd expect all tiers to suffer a reduction as the marginal qualifiers in each tier drop down. If, say, 15% of people in each tier are at the margin, then we'd expect these to drop down over the year to the tier below. Prima facie I'd expect the number of people at the margin in Gold to be the same (proportionately) as in Silver.