That was my thinking in the numbers I gave earlier. Golds tend to travel quite a lot, so I think most will be racking up considerably more than 1500 points (using the UK qualification level) and therefore most retain status (though some will fall back due to considerable corporate travel cuts).

However I think that Silvers (who probably do less l/h travel and are less able to accumulate tier points), probably typically earn around the 800-1000 or so tier points in a year. Even with leisure travel... it takes just one or two l/h flights less in a year (corporate travel) to drop them below 600 tier points. That is why I think that Silver number will drop proporortionately more this year.

But very interested to hear other views.

Especially a more accurate estimate of the amount of Golds and Silver now.