Same here (most likely). This is partly because a good deal of my EQMs come from OAL ST flights; about 1/3 of my flights during the DEQM period were on NW (it's hard to pay triple price for CO, even if it does yield quadruple EQMs).

I'll assume that the distribution of OP members per EQMs range is somewhat exponential (or similar decreasing distribution; I need to brush up on my statistics). Therefore most Silvers earn EQMs closer to 25k than to 50k and most Golds earn just over 50k (this may not hold true for Plats, since the upper bound of that bucket is massive).

Assuming an even distribution of travel throughout the year, doubling EQMs for three months increases EQMs earned by 25% (actually, less, since OAL EQMs are not doubled). Therefore we can expect that significantly less than 25% of current Elites will go up a level. Of course the # of Silvers may go up.