As you correctly note with your examples, all of the programs change at one time or another, mostly for the worse. Yes, we should be prepared for the changes, but I don't agree that "...none of these programs is any better than the other unless you can use the award immediately".

The Starwood Preferred Guest program has won the Freddie for best hotel program for the last 3 or 4 years. I disagree with that assessment, but a lot of someones out there think it has consistently been the best over that time period, point devaluation and all.

You are right that we can't predict what a particular award with a particular program will cost years down the road. But you have to choose your hotel program now and the best (only?) way to do that is to look at what is offered now and choose what provides you the most value. This can be done on an annual basis or on every single stay. It is really no different than deciding if you should redeem an award as opposed to paying cash for a particular stay, and that is a decision people are making everyday.

There ARE differences between the programs now, both in terms of what you earn and what you can redeem for. There are also the more qualitative factors (upgrades, customer service, etc.) that distinguish them. Opinions, informed and otherwise, abound as to which program is best/better.