Thanks for the analysis, divaoftravel. I have a spreadsheet that calculates "value" I receive on stays of varying length, at varying dollar amounts, and at the different elite levels at Hilton, Marriott, and Starwood properties (I stay at Hyatts very rarely). The concept is the same as yours, except it is more generic rather than being specific to award redemption in one location.

The analysis of where the "value" really lies is rather complex, as a good deal depends on what value you place on an HHonors points vs. a Marriott point, etc. The room rate itself also impacts the analysis in some cases in unexpected ways.

For a nightly room rate of $100 by a top tier member at a full service property (i.e. no Courtyards or Hampton Inns or Four Points), they stack up the way you described....Marriott, Hilton, Starwood. However, from my view, the differences are nowhere near as large as your analysis would suggest. For example, my spreadsheet suggests that for a 1-night ($100) stay (top tier member), one would receive $15.66 of "value" at a Marriott, $14.85 at a Hilton, and $14.48 at a Starwood.

However, at the lower tier levels (Gold and Silver, or Base in Starwood), Hilton still beats Marriott unless you are paying $200+ per night for a room. Starwood, again, comes in last.

If you start considering stays at the non-full service properties, you have more complexity. Surprisingly, Marriott Platinum does come out on top here too. The picture is less clear at the Gold and Silver levels as the better deal will depend on how often you visit full service vs. non-full service properties. Even so, if you spend any significant time at non-full service Hiltons (i.e. Hampton Inn), Marriott will be a better bet.

It is hard for me to ignore these results, and I may be forced to reconsider going for HHonors Diamond status again next year.