Exactly. FF programs are fickle and not a good investment strategy? Noooo...

On the other hand there are plenty of other things that are MUCH worse that most of us take for granted. Like gift cards. They are truly corporate currency that has no meaning or real value outside of confidence that your McBucks can be redeemed for things of the same value later. Anyone who thinks gift cards have value are welcome to ask holders of Circuit City giftcards and Sharper Image gift cards how much they're really worth.

At least with FF programs you get for doing what you would already do. Oh noes! $160 in effective McUA bucks for spending a week in Japan? I would travel anyways, so really my net entry cost is $0 (or marginal it I choose my preferred airline at a premium).

Compare that to handing $10 to some random guy on the promise that your friend will be able to get somethin that that random guy values at $10 in the future if he is able to produce the token of random guy's currency (gift cards). Plus, the exchange only works on way... You give dollars but you'll never get dollars back...