Arrived there yesterday afternoon mid-afternoon as the storm started to die down. A pretty full lot everywhere except the ES.... BWI's staff pretty much verbally stop you when you come outside and really don't want you looking around - I asked where the F line was, and she said "there's a fullsize car there in the ES" pointing to a Malibu.
ES had four cars at 3pm on a Wednesday in a full lot. The above-mentioned Malibu, a Gallant, a Camry, and fortunately a red Charger SXT with Sirius. Not exactly the car I want to drive in bad weather, but it'd do. The matron was honest with me that the SUV were all going to Reserve rentals and last-minute paid upgrades.
The regular aisle was filled up with all the excess minivans, and a reasonable mix of midsize cars and Kia SUVs.
I also asked the agent about the Executive VIP selection of five very nice cars (a Caddy, a nice SUV, some sort of Toyota, etc.) right next to the door - the only station where I consistently see this, and asked that as an Emerald Executive Elite if maybe I could have one of them. Absolutely not. I suspect that these cars are not really just for Executive VIP.... but really for paid upgrades at the counter.