Originally Posted by
rumrunner102
Don't count on upgrades clearing anywhere near 100% as an EXP. Last 4 trips in the past 2 weeks LAX-JFK-LAX, LAX-MIA-LAX, upgrades have only cleared for 2 of 4 segments
I'd second this. Even being careful to pick flights with open F cabins a few days before flight, my experience is that on a transcon 757 (for me, usually BOS-LAX or BOS-SFO) you will clear <20% of the time as EXP. If you typically buy tickets way ahead of time (weeks), you may do better, because AA's system favors those who purchase early.
On shorter flights I clear most of the time (well over 50%), except BOS-DFW which is more in the 50% range for me.