Howdy,
I'll share my decision matrix, but understand - this matrix works for me; I'm sharing not thinking anyone would use the identical decision branches; but rather to demonstrate how I arrive at my decisions and to encourage others to think along these lines.
This matrix is based upon the following:
1. I am EXP with American.
2. Wife is PLT with American.
3. Son is GLD with American.
4. Family loves to travel; and does so often.
5. I fly weekly, mostly domestic.
6. Clients will pay for me to stay over a weekend and pick up the cost of an additional ticket if I do so. (I normally fly M-F week1, M-F week2; when I bring my wife out for a weekend, I fly M week1-Fweek2 giving me a Saturday stayover; wifes ticket also has a Saturday stayover (Fweek1-Su/Mo week2) this is often cheaper than my two standard tickets and more than makes up for the added hotel cost - additionally the client has me for 2 additional days (The Friday and Monday I would normally fly)).
1. What is the cost of a roundtrip domestic ticket in F?
7. I can upgrade myself and my family on domestic or international tickets at will (1 class upgrade) I've been lucky - and have always gotten the upgrades I wanted.
The decision:
1. Is someone other than me paying the airfare? If so - always buy ticket. I find it messy to turn around say, "Mr. Client, the cost would have been $x.xx".
2. Is the ticket below $500 domestic, $750 hawaii, $1000 international?
3. If and only if two above is true - am I traveling with family?
4. If three above is true, can I upgrade? If this is true; then purchase ticket.
5. Am I traveling alone? (can't imagine when one above would not cover this situation but it's possible I guess). Calculate mile earned value at .025 cents per mile and subtract miles earned value from ticket cost. If ticket now fits inside four above; buy ticket.
6. Else book award ticket in F or J.
This assumes that flying I pay for I generally travel with family; and then I generally fly family in first class when possible. Also note that I have a very high chance of getting my upgrades to clear.
Note: YMMV
Keep the faith,
Pakse
p.s. For what you described in your post - I would buy the ticket. However, for me - the earned milage never changes my elite status; I am averaging 175k miles a year business travel alone.