OK - my 2 cents.

1) I don't know if you consider it, but if I'm going on an international cruise, I arrive at least one day early both to recover and to avoid any problems en route.

2) The possibility of LH F is very tempting. I had the chanch to upgrade 4 long haul segments last fall and had the best time on those flights that I've had in years - not to mention the three times I got to go to the FCT.

As long as I'm flying 10K per quarter on UA (and 40K year year that way), I don't mind forgoing some e500's (most of which expire for me anyway) and I still get my SWU's, etc. Only drawback to flying LH is that the miles don't count toward MM status, but you still get the COS bonus and the double EQM for the transatlantic segments.

If I could find flights on UA that had upgrade space available (doubtful from what I've read), then I'd pick option (1) and save the money and upgrade now. You just never know - last year I found 5 award business class seats on the same set of flights to/from SFO-LHR bought in Feb for travel in July. Not the direct flights, but flights through IAD but 5 at once. So, like I say, if you can find upgrade space on any routing on UA, that's what I'd do.

Billy