My view is 2009 is going to be a difficult year anyway for businesses generally and this will reflect negatively on the airline industry. Travel is one of the first budgets to be cut and leisure travel which is really a discretionary spend soon follows. In addition, we all know that Qantas is not the lowest priced carrier so they will have increased completion for a decreasing leisure travel dollar.
Qantas has a number of things going for it:
A successful launch of Jetstar
The ability to move mainline Qantas routes - both domestic and international - over to the low cost Jetstar. This is a powerful option in a falling market
The drawing power of the ‘Qantas’ name both domestically and internationally
A new CEO from the successful Jetstar brand – not part of the old guard
A new hands on Chairperson who is not part of the airline industry club
A replacement fleet is starting to arrive – this can be viewed as a positive of negative in the current climate. My view is on the positive side
All in all, I think Qantas are well placed to withstand whatever 2009 will bring.