Originally Posted by
Needle Hill
What is the chance of ug on hkg-yyz compared with yyz-hkg? Is it the same? or I have better chance doing hkg-yvr-yyz? I don't want to use a SSWU just for yvr-yyz.
It will depend on the day of the week in each direction, but generally that chances should be the same. The other key benefit of doing yyz-yvr-hkg is that connecting passengers have a higher priority for standby upgrades. So the YYZ-YVR-HKG should have a better chance than HKG-YVR as your YVR connection gets you a priority bump you won't have out of HKG.
If they cannot confirm you the entire direction, you may try to ask them to hold your cert until your overseas flight. They may not be willing to do, but it is worth a try.