It is very clear what is happening. When the fuel price rise began, every airline introduced the surcharges because they wanted to be on the safe side. At that time, they still were paying the lower prices.

Now, after the price came down again, a lot of airlines have hedged their fuel at high prices. But the market price is around $40 and $50. Having that in mind, it is also important to look at the futures! The one year oil futures are at about $75. So airlines have to, again, calculate their surcharges at roughly double the amount of the current market price.

Of course the current situation leads to a funny conclusion. Airlines could buy oil for $40 now, and sell it right away for $75 as futures. Both capital cost and storage would be marginal compared to the profit. But there is NO available storage! (neither on land nor on ships)

Clearly airlines are not stupid and (as every industry) they try to keep the higher surcharges (=revenues) in place. Still we shouldn’t forget that the oil price isn’t back at $40 for good.