Originally Posted by
J.Edward
I'd argue it would be more a function of the predicted paid demand for the flight in question.
If CO's going to sell all 50 seats on tomorrows evening flight to TLV than you're SOL if you trying to upgrade...regardless of your elite level. OTOH, if they've only sold 5J (out of 50) seats and the flight leaves tomorrow, than I'd think you stand a good chance at the upgrade regardless of your elite level.
The gray area is of course when the only have a few seats left over and then your elite level will come into play in determining who has first access to them. But still, to this regard I think timing has a lot to do with it. If you're a non-elite and can travel at the off peak times I think you stand a reasonable chance of getting the upgrade. If you're constrained by a schedule to travel on peak paid demand days than you'll be in the back.
<shrug>
I think it has more to do with flexibility of travel dates than anything else. Let's also not forget that the non-elites are always at the bottom of the queue, so any difficulty CO elites may have in nabbing these elusive awards is compounded for a non-elite, since the supply of seats available for these awards is very limited indeed.
The bottom line is: If you are a CO non-elite and your travel is not very flexible you essentially have no chance of a BF upgrade.
One more thing: I am not suggesting that non-elites deserve a better shot at BF upgrades. In my opinion their likelihood of getting one of these awards is perfectly fair. But I just think we need to be honest that--absent tremendous flexibility on travel dates--it would be extremely unlikely for a non-elite to nab a BF upgrade.