I am looking to book a weekend away to Barcelona in late January (2 nights from 23rd).

Checking rates on SPG.com the best rate is €169 but for a room with 2 single beds. The next equivalent with a king bed (which is what I absolutely want) is going to be €235.

By January I will be a Plat (been gold for a few yrs now). I am wondering whether to risk booking the cheaper room on the basis that I am highly likely to get some sort of upgrade at check in.

Of course the logical approach is to book the room I want and be happy with an upgrade I get on top of that... however for an extra €132 over the two nights out of my own pocket + flights etc I am wondering whether to risk it and book the cheaper room.

Any thoughts??