Originally Posted by
UA vs NW
Don't shoot me if I say something stupid --- I am wondering if there were no AF purchasing KLM thing, NW might not choose to merge with DL as the optimal way for future survival. Thus the current NW-KL relationship should not change that much as long as both NW code and KL code are still in use.
Not stupid at all. Actually if AF had not purchased KL, the entire SkyTeam landscape would be different. KL is only in ST because ST co-founder AF bought them. NW is only in ST because their JV with KL required them to be in the same alliance with KL. CO is only in ST because the now-defunct tie-up with NW (when NW tried to buy CO years ago) required CO to join any alliance that NW joined. If NW weren't in ST, it's unlikely they would have started codesharing with DL years ago, never mind merge with them.
The NW code is going to go away probably in 12-24 months; I expect the earlier. NW/DL already jointly applied to the FAA and got approval for a single operating certificate even before the merger closed, something unprecedented in other airline mergers. They already worked out most of the contract deals with pilots and FAs except for seniority arbitration. It took US and HP (America West) well over a year to start flying under one certificate, and they still have separate unions to this day, while they even used different callsigns until recently (maybe still do.) They still didn't share the same FA uniforms as of a mid-2008 flight I took on the HP side of it.
Meanwhile NW will be in DL uniforms in March, upgrades are already reciprocal, and a lot of behind-the-scenes work has been going on for months. I expect DL and its now-subsidiary NW to start flying under one certificate maybe even by the middle of 2009. Doubt the NW code will still be in use for new bookings at least by this time next year.
From what I've read the KL code might not be around too long either; wasn't it a 5-year commitment that AF made to the EU or the Netherlands government to keep KL separate? That countdown is near its end. We've already seen this year the "Air France__KLM" branding on the aircraft and even in the listings of SkyTeam airlines in SkyTeam member lists and even in the NWA World Traveler magazine section about SkyTeam, rather than KLM listed as a separate airline (it used be alphabetical under K with AF earlier under A). Plus with the Joint Venture approval that AF, KL, DL, and NW got several months or mor ago to share operations and revenue, there is less and less need for the "KLM" brand to have "NW" as its sole representative. It's becoming all one (dysfunctional?) family.
By 2 years from now the brands will be AF, and DL, IMHO. Maybe sooner.