I still think Aperture is the best app for "cutting down" large swaths of raw images. iPhoto gets unmanageable with larger collections. Aperture has its own share of issues, but it's at least designed to make it easier to get around them. At your image volumes I'm guessing Ap is worth the effort.

You really will just have to sit down and invest the 6 to 8 hours to come up the curve a little bit before you can make an educated decision for yourself. It's a pretty personal choice. I like Ap + PS, but LR is a fine contender as well with some real advantages in certain areas (and disadvantages in others). No clear, obvious choice that stands out.

In a year, however, we may see some consolidation and a clear winner. If I had to wager on it, I'd guess LR will "win." That said, I'm pulling for the "underdog."