I imagine the other factor compelling Tennisboy to make a quick decision is the impending rise in PC fees on November 1.

For someone making the lifetime plunge, the cost will go up by $400. If he waits until next year, the price for a non-status PC membership goes up to $5500 (oddly, the same amount that AA charges when it occasionally offers lifetime membership).

I think the *Alliance reciprocity angle is a buying a pig in a poke here. Continental's web site merely contains coy hints of discussions in this regard, with the only firm addition being access to UA's RCCs. Now, I think that folks in the past have bought some might fine pigs this way, but its going to be long after the rates go up that the poke's going to be opened and we get to see the shade of lipstick on this particular pig (Lufthansa yellow, anyone?).

A couple of other considerations:

-- With the yearly PC fees going up $25 a year, and the 3-year going up $75, this suggests to me that CO assesses the break-even point for a lifetime membership to be 16 years (400/25). If someone believes they will be flying for the next 16 years, and that much of that travel will be on CO, then that may help the decision. If CO ends up merging with or acquiring UA, so much the better.

-- It also strikes me that access to the PCs alone could be worth the $4100 lifetime costs, particularly if they restricted attendance to only PC members and folks flying on CO, and if you either fly a lot of CO or CO doesn't change its policy about letting non-CO metal flyers use the PC.

To repeat a point I made previously, I don't think this works as a straight economic decision - this is more of a lifestyle purchase. Of course, those who have been advocating the invest/pay the fees off the interest were making a prudent economic argument that has been completely upended by this unpredicted market crisis.

A true YMMV situation - good luck.