Wow! That was one heck of a fantastic analysis. Thanks aaupgrade!
I'm with you as far as running away from Marriott is concerned. However, going forward I will start "distributing the wealth" to where I can get the most return instead of just staying at Marriott as I was doing for past 3 years. Hyatt is currently running the FFN promo and I guess I'll stay with them 1 night a week to mop up some of those nights for any weekend stays I may have in Jan and Feb. After that, its the hotel thats running any bonus promo that gets to swipe my credit card.
I gotta admit, the 10% off gift cards do skew the balance towards Marriott and cash in the pocket (especially in these times) rules.