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Old Oct 22, 2008 | 3:13 pm
  #8  
octopic
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Austin, tx, USA
Programs: UA 1K, Hertz 5-star, Marriott Gold
Posts: 261
Okay, thanks for the link to the info. What I was trying to figure out is what the ratio on any given flight will be (on average). Taking the numbers from above, I make the following assumptions:

1) The type of flights that elites take doesn't vary on average per type of elite (e.g. there Silvers are just as likely to fly IAH-CDG as Golds as one of their flights).
2) Silvers average 30 flights per year, golds 60, plats 90.

From that I multiplied the 30,60, and 90 by 250, 110, and 60 to get 7500, 6600, and 5400 (total flights per year in thousands by elite status). From there I can get the ratios that for each Plat on a flight, on average there will be 1.22 golds and 1.39 silvers.

This is useful because... Okay, not very useful, but you might be able to tease out odds of an upgrade (as a silver) based on how many seats are left prior to the 24 hour EUA run (taking out the inventory that was held back).
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