Gentlemen,

Good points above, but you are missing one very specific checkpoint - United's bankruptcy proceedings.

I believe the majority of the extended qual/bonus qual opportunities are aimed at specific fares classes and/or increased flying vis a vis previous periods:

Great Offer - bonus for additional segments in Q2.5 over Q1 2003 (.5 Q designates United's quarter vs. fiscal quarter)

4x3 offers - Business or higher end economy fares by end Q3.5

5K bonuses - intl. flights by end Q4

Normal FF mailings - Q4.5

If I am not mistaken, United is looking to emerge from bankruptcy in Q4. The more flights and/or flights with higher fare bases, the better.

As far as alienating existing United customers - I would see that being treated several ways

I would first posit that existing customers focus on service more than promotions.

This might not be true for Flyertalkers :0 but between the corporate travel agreements, routes dominated by United - esp. Asia, and existing FF program - I don't think United is being as blase as might seem.

Note that the weaker 'H' class upgrades could be seen as a way of preserving 1K privileges - if the Sweet Spots were planned and not a knee jerk response to scads of 1K complaints...