Great post and intelligent analysis Napa, and I agree mostly.

If extending elite status to just about everyone with a pulse were such a revenue generator, airlines and programs would have done that long ago. Heck...make everyone an elite!

IMHO, there is much more to it than that.

I believe jwalkabout is correct in their initial post about their speculation (bailing and/or not qualifying and/or not requalifying) for the reasons behind all this for most of the offers we have seen so far. IMHO, United is simply attempting to hang on to current customers or at least "keep on the hook" declining customers a bit longer, in hopes of their return soon.

But then again as you point out, the big risk here is that would cheapen what elite status is all about and what United has protected so hard in the past. "Elite" is only valuable if it remains rare to the whole. They run the very real risk of alienating remaining "true" Road Warriors with these types of Fast Tracks, On Tracks and Great Offers.

While some of these elite status miles offers may not boost or get additional revenue big time right now, I would bet they are looking at this as more of a long-term issue, rather than a promotion like "Buy 3 Get 1 Free" or time sensitive bonus miles offers that might be more "right now" revenue builders.

I don't like these status things one bit. But considering the pickle they've got themselves into (bankruptcy, uneasy customers, dilution of Mileage Plus benefits, route and capacity cutbacks), I can see why they've realized they have to take drastic actions like this regarding elite level qualifications.

And I bet they've weighed the benefits vs. the risks.

I would like to also point out that there have been times in United's past where things were so tough and they stood to lose so many elites, that they simply grandfathered everyone's old status for an additional year, period. No faxing. No complex terms. No fare restrictions. No requirement of flights at all! Automatically extended status. To everyone.

At least we're not at that point. Yet.

[This message has been edited by PremEx (edited 09-06-2003).]