Originally Posted by
Smirnoff
Well he's not very good an analyzing risk then.
Even if you fully analyzed the risk you would probably find that it made sense to fly FR.
One choice (FR vs other), 4 outcomes.
- Fly FR and everything works OK
- Fly FR but it's canceled or something else goes wrong
- Fly with other operator, pay more and all works OK
- Fly with other operator, pay more and it goes wrong
Probability of things going wrong are low, assign cost to this and multiply by probability of occurrence. Add fudge factor to cost if you hate FR.
Compare the above cost to the extra cost of the other operator's flights, also factoring in any costs/benefits of the other's schedule and routing. Add value for points, etc.
I'd say allot of the time FR wins. With FR or other operators it's still worth not taking the last possible flight, just in case things go wrong.