I don't know the statistics, but these things usually run fairly close to on time. This evening ATC took my guy "around the moon" up with a circle over NJ and then over Connecticut and the Sound before turning him around and setting him down on 22 exactly on time. 22 (in my experience the most prevalent runway for landing) is a two minute taxi to the Shuttle gates.

EricH's suggestion about the 230 DL is right on the money. Although taxis are sometimes sparse at the Marine Air Terminal where the DL Shuttle comes in, I would not think that you would need to wait more than 5-10 minutes for one at that time of day. And as he also posted, if you try for the US 2PM and miss it, you will have only a scant chance of making the DL 230 all the way down at the other end of the airport.