I've only been to Japan in October and December but have managed to catch some of the fall colours in both months. It is erratic and I can't see how one can plan too carefully this far in advance.
Another factor is that areas known and which are famous for Autumn colours will be targetted by the Japanese, who are capable of visiting in large numbers.
I'll also be travelling this November and am also keen to see dying leaves in this, my favourite season.
I made this suggestion in another forum:
Originally Posted by
LapLap
Outside Tokyo
A moderately priced onsen inn with potentially glorious views of the fall colours
http://www.okutama.gr.jp/kojin/stay/batoukan/index.html
The price ranges from ¥7,000 to ¥12,000 per night per person and this includes two meals.
Map of its location relative to Tokyo
Nearest station is Okutama (Take JR Chuo line from Shinjuku to Tachikawa and from there take the JR Ome line to Okutama - trip takes 2 hours and costs ¥1,050). From Okutama a bus will take you nearer to the Inn (30 minutes)
Take a print out of the text on the inn's web page and ask for help with catching the right bus (and getting off at the right stop) at Okutama.
There are more inns in this area, some with rates as low as ¥6,000 per person
http://www.okutama.gr.jp/stay/itiran.htm
Note that I haven't stayed there yet, but if you avoid the weekend, I don't think there'd be so many crowds. (
More info on Okutama area from link in
jib71's post, below)
And there are more suggestions in the J
R East's wonderful 3,300yen a day travel offer thread. Any of them will allow you to incorporate a leaf peeking tour if the surrounding flora has 'turned'.
This page:
http://www.jreast.co.jp/e/sendai-dc/index.html
details some of the promotions in Sendai-Miyagi at this time including foliage illuminations.