Part of the problem is that you're trying to make an absolute out of something that is subject to many variables.

Some examples:

Short-hauls into EWR (esp. in the afternoon) are more prone to delays. I'd be more hesitant to book a short connection DCA-EWR-SFO than the same duration connection SFO-EWR-DCA.

Frequency of flights play into it. If it's morning, and there are many flights to your final destination (or alternate airports), a shorter connection may be worth the gamble. If it's the only int'l flight of the day, then well, it may pay to make that a longer connection.

There's also terminal issues (e.g., Express to Mainline and v.v.). You may be comfortable booking 45 minutes in IAH mainline to mainline, but not express to mainline. Also, Express flights are often more likely to be delayed, so Express to Mainline and Mainline to Express may have different times.

As for int'l flights, customs facilities vary in load. GRU-IAH, for example, arrives when there are light loads at customs. But flights in the afternoon would be more packed. Similarly, an early morning arrival TLV-EWR might be fine with a 1.5 hour connection, whereas a Europe-EWR peak time arrival, you may want 2+ hours.

So I really don't see how we can simplify this list and still take into account all the factors. Anybody on FT should understand that. "How do I get the lowest fare?" or "How do I get bumped?" all have the same answer. There's no absolute right answer.