tcook052

Quote:

I wouldn’t rule out either a structured wind-up of the operation or potential bankruptcy of WS if they can’t see a way to profitability in the medium and long term.'

3-month strike? Bankruptcy? Care to make any Super Bowl predictions while you're at it?

Heavens forbid either eventuality however remote a possibility they may be.

aerobod

Difficult to tell if they are remote possibilities as there is a lot of anger in the pilot group leading to entrenchment and it seems just as much entrenchment on the WS/Onex side, but I think a strike of any length would finish the company from the point of view of continued Onex financial support - they have put a couple of their larger investments into receivership in the past (Hawker/Beechcraft and Magnatrax). It depends on what the Government mediation does to try and find a middle ground, but if either side doesn't abide by the mediation recommendations (ALPA is already saying it wouldn't go to binding arbitration), then we could be in for a long strike. The current ALPA posture seems to be to try and gain as much sympathy to their cause as possible, but ignoring the Government recommendations would be problematic to that posture. As I previously mentioned, WS won't be able to say much, other than agreeing to the mediation, due to the nature of legal implications of coming over as anti-union.

Also difficult to know if the Government would agree to back-to-work legislation forced on the pilots if there was a strike, as the alternative is significant travel paralysis in Western Canada, likely during peak summer travel. Some of the vacuum would be filled by the ULCCs and possibly Porter, but their aircraft orders are only early in the delivery cycle, Air Canada would likely not provide a lot of additional capacity if it affects what already could be a fully utilized fleet.

tracon

Work to rule can be an expensive proposition too.
I was on a UA flight years ago during one of it's labour difficulties.
The pilots managed to find a "dent" after passenger boarding.
It took engineering two hours to determine it was of an acceptable size.

Pilots can taxi slower. That increase fuel burn and employee compensation.
Other tricks in the book too.

Frequentlander

Does anyone have a best guess as to when (what dates) strike action is likely to occur?

aerobod

Earliest for a legal strike is mid-May, based on the ALPA mediation request and the mandated negotiation and cooling off periods.

Frequentlander

So hypothetically, if I was in possession of a hypothetical booking YVR-YYC-YHZ with a return a couple of weeks later in in "mid May" I should look at booking a fully refundable YHZ-YVR on AC....just in case..hypothetically.

tracon

You may want to read through some of the other forum Aerobod has been posting in.
May long weekend would have more of an impact than mid May.
Mid May is the earliest a strike can happen.
Reality, strike date could be pushed back, if there's some positive direction to negotiations and/or legal challenges that delay work stoppage.
If there is a strike, there is still an obligation of WS to get ticketed passengers to their destination.
There are still management pilots that can do a bit of flying. Third tier airlines can be brought in.

Don't panic. Make sure you have good credit card travel insurance.

cirrusdragoon

Wow , good analysis Aerobod. It is a scary 50/50 probability Onex could file WS for insolvency. I mean Virgin Australia did it voluntarily.

aerobod

Thanks for that Cirrusdragoon. To be clear, my opinion is a 50/50 probability of the company being put into bankruptcy IF there is a lengthy strike (such as 3 months), not 50/50 in other circumstances where there is limited disruption, I think the overall probability is a lot less. The 50/50 is based on the asset value of the company being degraded to essentially zero due to the lengthy disruption and the loss of other key staff, especially if there are layoffs across all employees.

Virgin Australia / Virgin Blue has been on a parallel path to WS in many respects and has had very similar wins and challenges over the years with Qantas being their Air Canada, together with their CASM/RASM, aging workforce and Covid loses being very similar to WS.

mxqisit

Strike vote authorized by the union is what I'm hearing.

VoodooYYC

The inside rumour mill puts the target directly on the May long weekend. I changed a planned trip to stay out of the back half of May entirely on WS.

Denguin

Thank goodness AC still allows cancel for credit. Time to make some back-up bookings for my upcoming travels this spring.

tcook052

Hopefully the rumored timeline leaves my 09 - 13 May WS trip unscathed.

Shame if a strike does happen as it only shows the inability of both sides to find common ground and may further damage the airline's brand.

czmuac

So I have a trip on WS to CDG planned at the end of May. I guess it's time to start researching some alternatives while hoping its resolved by then.

VoodooYYC

I would think that the overseas routes will be WJ's #1 priority to keep running in the event of a strike. You can't show weakness in those developing overseas markets. I would assume those flights would be most likely to run with management pilots, but like yourself, I would also have a backup plan in my pocket.