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Old Sep 4, 2019, 10:09 pm
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by Fiordland
Everything you say is true (especially about how bad Rouge is). At the same time WestJet and Swoop are not sister companies. Swoop is a wholly owned subsidiary of WestJet. Have a look at the annual report for WestJet,, and search for the word swoop.
https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-we...ual-Report.pdf

The CEO of Swoop is a SVP at WestJet (as you would expect with a subsidiary). That is how one organisation reports into the other. Every financial and KPI number being reported in WestJets financials is a consolidated number that includes WestJet and all subsidiaries (including Swoop).

Air Canada is no different with rouge. Here is the corporate filling for "Air Canada Rouge General Partner Inc."
https://www.ic.gc.ca/app/scr/cc/Corp...pNmbr=&bsNmbr=

In one case you have a parent company and subsidiary trying to create the illusion they are completely independent of each other. The other case you have a parent company and subsidiary trying to create the illusion they are the same organisation.
“Illusion” is not the correct term. Separate business model to serve a different market with a different product is what the business plan is all about, at a cost point that mainline WestJet can’t achieve. If you haven’t read the investor pitch on this, you won’t understand (see slide 52 to 65 for Swoop business strategy here: https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-we...vestor-day.pdf).

Qantas does this well with Jetstar, 72 mentions of Jetstar in the 2018 Qantas annual report https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuil...Report-ASX.pdf

All the Lexus performance is fully embedded in the Toyota annual report and financials: https://global.toyota/en/filedownload/27776814

With BMW for it’s wholly owned subsidiary brands, the same as with Qantas/Jetstar, WestJet/Swoop, Toyota/Lexus, too: https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam...315_ONLINE.pdf
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Old Sep 4, 2019, 11:26 pm
  #77  
 
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Originally Posted by aerobod
IF you look at other ULCCs around the world, Swoop is about par for the course on customer service and cancellations. It looks like a "meltdown" when they cancel several flights, but a bad month for them has been 3% of flights cancelled, a good month has been 1% cancelled, pretty normal in the airline business. They are keeping to the ULCC business model, some people will be affected and annoyed and for the 120,000 people per month carried, a few dozen will make a lot of noise on social media and there will be a couple of press articles, but still they will come for the low prices. If you read social media posts on Ryanair (consistently the world's most profitable major airline by margin) you will see the same patterns. Qantas's Jetstar is probably the closest model for a major carrier with an arms length ULCC, they have been very successful, but cancelled 2.5% of flights in July and have their own appreciation website, besides social media: https://www.dontflyjetstar.com/complaints
Then the question is whether or not "WestJet Swoop" which is what Swoop will always be perceived to be is making enough money that it's drag on WestJet's brand and reputation are worth it. It has to be acceptable to the company that a headline like "Swoop strands passengers for five days" is interpreted by the general public as "WestJet strands passengers for five days".

Originally Posted by aerobod
Swoop never uses WestJet in any advertising or branding and vice-versa. The only connection made is by the press.
How dare they report the news.

Is it my imagination or did both Gregg and Sims discuss Swoop in tremendous detail in Calgary Herald interviews accompanied by great big photos of them right next to a WestJet aircraft or model?
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Old Sep 4, 2019, 11:54 pm
  #78  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
Then the question is whether or not "WestJet Swoop" which is what Swoop will always be perceived to be is making enough money that it's drag on WestJet's brand and reputation are worth it. It has to be acceptable to the company that a headline like "Swoop strands passengers for five days" is interpreted by the general public as "WestJet strands passengers for five days".



How dare they report the news.

Is it my imagination or did both Gregg and Sims discuss Swoop in tremendous detail in Calgary Herald interviews accompanied by great big photos of them right next to a WestJet aircraft or model?
From an investor perspective it has been discussed by Ed and Gregg and Bob and Steven many times what the Swoop strategy is, no secret at all. This is all quite different from branding strategy. In Canada ULCC practices are new and a novelty, elsewhere in the world the press has generally lost interest in ULCC “news” unless it is really bad and moved on to other things that they can sell.

Swoop is very important to WestJet to provide a product profitably to the ULCC market that WestJet mainline can’t come close to achieving, without Swoop they have to abandon that market. Swoop’s inflexibility, strict policy enforcement and cheap IROP handling that only just meets legal obligations, is necessary to hit the 60% CASM of mainline. No drag on the WestJet brand that Swoop seems to have caused, based on questions asked and answered in the quarterly investor calls earlier this year, one reason to keep the product offerings and brand separate.

Swoop is expected to have ULCC inflexibility, this is built into the business model if you have viewed the publicly available investor presentations. This will create expected negative publicity, as with any true ULCC. If you look at customer complaints on sites such as Trip Advisor, Swoop is far from the bottom of ULCC ratings, most are in the 2.0 to 3.0 average rating there, Swoop is 3.0 with a typical “bathtub” rating that sees predominantly high and low ratings with less average ones. Flair, Spirit and Frontier are at the lower end, Ryanair, Swoop and Jetstar at the higher end, for ULCCs.
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 1:11 am
  #79  
 
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I'm not talking about an investor perspective, I think one would struggle to find a public face of Swoop in the media that wasn't either Gregg Saretsky or Ed Sims.

We have a really young girl, just a year or two out of school who works in our Airdrie data center. She is deathly afraid of flying and rarely travels, yet even she said "That's WestJet right?" when somebody was talking about Swoop.

As Swoop lifts off, WestJet CEO navigates tricky headwinds
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/co...inds-of-change
With scale Swoop should achieve greater resiliency, but with scale they will also cast a larger shadow.

Last edited by Error 601; Sep 5, 2019 at 1:25 am
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 9:12 am
  #80  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
I'm not talking about an investor perspective, I think one would struggle to find a public face of Swoop in the media that wasn't either Gregg Saretsky or Ed Sims.
Before Bob left, he had just as high a profile as Gregg before he left:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...rier-1.4308994

These days Steven is often in the press:
https://www.bttoronto.ca/videos/wins...irport-1-of-2/
https://globalnews.ca/news/5828849/s...unding-update/
https://business.financialpost.com/t...requent-flyers

If you look at social media, I've seen quite a few people who have a problem with Swoop say words to the effect "I will never fly Swoop again, I had to buy a ticket on WestJet" unaware of them being the same owner, until pointed out by someone else. Price is the only selling point Swoop has and with the majority of Swoop customers getting to their destination without any issues. That is probably why you see more people on Trip Advisor rating them Excellent and Good combined compared with Average, Poor and Terrible combined, for an average rating of 3.0: https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_R...-Reviews-Swoop. This compares with the same 3.0 rating for Ryanair: https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_R...eviews-Ryanair and is quite a bit better than the 2.0 rating for Flair, their only Canadian ULCC competitor: https://www.tripadvisor.ca/Airline_R...Flair-Airlines
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 10:53 am
  #81  
 
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Alright, lets see how good old Bob Cummings is described...

Bob Cummings, WestJet’s executive vice-president of strategy, says the low-cost carrier, Swoop, will begin operating in June 2018.
Swoop's early history was colored entirely by WestJet's leadership, there was no Mr. Swoop out there creating an identity for Swoop as anything other than "WestJet's Ultra Low-Cost Carrier".

Every single one of those links still prominently features WestJet, in the Breakfast Television clip Greenway said the W-word himself unprompted.

You can find ignorant and oblivious people anywhere but as Swoop grows the knowledge they're affiliated with WestJet is going to grow too. I just don't see how Swoop becomes Swoop and not "WestJet's Swoop". Whether that is a long-term problem or not is going to depend on their execution.
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 12:12 pm
  #82  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
Alright, lets see how good old Bob Cummings is described...



Swoop's early history was colored entirely by WestJet's leadership, there was no Mr. Swoop out there creating an identity for Swoop as anything other than "WestJet's Ultra Low-Cost Carrier".

Every single one of those links still prominently features WestJet, in the Breakfast Television clip Greenway said the W-word himself unprompted.

You can find ignorant and oblivious people anywhere but as Swoop grows the knowledge they're affiliated with WestJet is going to grow too. I just don't see how Swoop becomes Swoop and not "WestJet's Swoop". Whether that is a long-term problem or not is going to depend on their execution.
Swoop is obviously owned by WestJet, but the branding and sales are totally separate. Have you looked at the publicly available business plan and strategy information? The brand is quite separate and from the information disclosed to analysts in the quarterly calls (they are probably still archived on the WestJet site) is on target to achieve the goals in those plans. WestJet has been quite up front in their ownership of Swoop. Outside of FlyerTalk in Canada, many people don't know that Swoop actually exists and will just buy the cheapest ticket that they find from whichever channel they want to use. Ryanair has proven in the past that bad publicity can actually help brand awareness, with a no apology "we don't do customer service, but we have the lowest prices" (O'Leary has used colourful language in the past in this regard).

Swoop is certainly being held back by aircraft availability at the moment due to the MAX fiasco, any bad publicity hasn't hurt the demand for their flights or WestJet sales, with continued growth at the expense of high load factors with a constrained fleet.

One day the Canadian public will get used to ULCCs and bad publicity, it isn't anything that is unusual from experience elsewhere in the world. As I've said before, the way Jetstar has been managed by Qantas over the years with the links they have is similar to WestJet and Swoop. The brands have grown separately and successfully. Here is a negative review of the Qantas Jetstar strategy from 2006: https://aviationstrategy.aero/newsle...Jetstar_brands, in contrast to the issues expressed in the article, Virgin Australia ran into challenges a lot more than Jetstar since the article was published.
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 4:01 pm
  #83  
 
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Originally Posted by aerobod
Swoop is obviously owned by WestJet, but the branding and sales are totally separate. Have you looked at the publicly available business plan and strategy information? The brand is quite separate and from the information disclosed to analysts in the quarterly calls (they are probably still archived on the WestJet site) is on target to achieve the goals in those plans. WestJet has been quite up front in their ownership of Swoop.
You're missing the point. WestJet can organize it's subsidiaries however they choose and brand them however they choose. They can not however define how they are perceived externally. The Canadian cellular industry has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on marketing pretending their flanker brands represent a vibrant competitive market.

If a Swoop aircraft is sent to help evacuate a northern community in the path of a wildfire it will be reported as WestJet's Swoop. If they strand an entire wedding party on the wrong side of the country or border it will also be reported as WestJet's Swoop. A certain business news service refers to my employer as Private Equity Firm Name owned Company Name. We find it irritating but that isn't going to make them stop.

Outside of FlyerTalk in Canada, many people don't know that Swoop actually exists and will just buy the cheapest ticket that they find from whichever channel they want to use.
Yet a woman of 23 who has shown little desire to travel anywhere further than a day's drive from Calgary seemed to know that Swoop is affiliated with WestJet and has a lot of delays.

Ryanair has proven in the past that bad publicity can actually help brand awareness, with a no apology "we don't do customer service, but we have the lowest prices" (O'Leary has used colourful language in the past in this regard).
Ryanair doesn't appear to have the same aspirations that WestJet does (or did - depending on Onex)

I'm not trying to argue anything other than WestJet doesn't appear to be able to establish the comfortable distance between WestJet and Swoop.
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 4:51 pm
  #84  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
You're missing the point. WestJet can organize it's subsidiaries however they choose and brand them however they choose. They can not however define how they are perceived externally.
You are missing my main point - It doesn't matter significantly how WestJet is perceived externally due to Swoop. This has been shown in other markets through the ULCC startups such as Jetstar. There will be a few people who won't book with WestJet due to Swoop issues, but price is a much bigger determining factor than reputation, with safety record being another determining factor ahead of market perception. WestJet is a business that aims to make money in an efficient manner, Swoop is one of the tools to do that. The fact that WestJet was not efficient in the past due to too much "WestJettiness" became a problem, especially when they reached the bottom of on-time performance for all airlines in North America about 6 years ago due to holding aircraft, allowing check-in after cut-off times, etc. The old "WestJetiness" can't return unless the airline shrinks back to a regional point-to-point airline without hubs where it can afford to be inefficient, as opposed to the efficient process-driven (and somewhat inflexible) machine that it must become if it wants to grow internationally.

The WestJet brand has value, but not enough that offsetting Swoop bad press by being "nicer" would materially make it any better or worse. From the studies I had insight into 10 years ago, on average a "guest" only values the WestJet name over the worst name in the industry for a $5 difference in ticket price. I'm sure there will be lots of indignation in the (not too distant in my opinion) future when WestJet starts overselling flights, as they won't be able to run an effective Business offering without doing that, but overall that will be financially the best move.

People dislike Rouge if you read online comments, but it has financially been part of the saviour strategy for Air Canada to be able to serve markets that mainline can't, it hasn't done the overall brand any harm at all. Swoop is needed to fill a niche for WestJet that mainline can't serve, with the ability to defend routes that weren't profitable, to be able to compete with ULCCS with much lower costs than mainline, without them steadily eroding market share as they upsell into the mainline market.
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 7:02 pm
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by aerobod
You are missing my main point - It doesn't matter significantly how WestJet is perceived externally due to Swoop. This has been shown in other markets through the ULCC startups such as Jetstar. There will be a few people who won't book with WestJet due to Swoop issues, but price is a much bigger determining factor than reputation, with safety record being another determining factor ahead of market perception.
If I was the steward of a billion dollar brand I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I was working with people who thought that way.

The WestJet brand has value, but not enough that offsetting Swoop bad press by being "nicer" would materially make it any better or worse. From the studies I had insight into 10 years ago, on average a "guest" only values the WestJet name over the worst name in the industry for a $5 difference in ticket price.
A good or service only becomes fungible after differentiation has been removed, and in everything WestJet has done in recent years they're stripping away differentiation. And that isn't just at the Swoop/Basic level, the new 787 business class cabin is a wonderful approximation of Air Canada's modern widebody business class cabin. Does Canada need an identically specced and identically priced business class service? probably not.

Everyone and their dog in the US knows that Southwest still has two free checked bags. Everyone and their dog knows that an iPhone will get software updates until it is too painful to keep using it. You can't strip away what differentiates you and still expect people to be irrationally charitable. If Knott’s Chicken Dinner Restaurant got rid of the dining room and setup an outdoor food court people would notice they're eating KFC.

People dislike Rouge if you read online comments, but it has financially been part of the saviour strategy for Air Canada to be able to serve markets that mainline can't, it hasn't done the overall brand any harm at all.
Air Canada hasn't had much goodwill left to lose in my lifetime, I had to sit through a presentation a few years ago that had Air Canada wallowing around with cable companies and Quebec public utilities. WestJet was held up with Lululemon and VW (this was pre-emissions scandal).

I just hope what comes out the other-side of this transformation doesn't irritate me as much as Air Canada and United irritate me.

Last edited by Error 601; Sep 5, 2019 at 7:08 pm
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 7:41 pm
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I don't know if I should award or deduct marks for the word "fungible".
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 11:10 pm
  #87  
 
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Originally Posted by aerobod

“Illusion” is not the correct term. Separate business model to serve a different market with a different product is what the business plan is all about, at a cost point that mainline WestJet can’t achieve. If you haven’t read the investor pitch on this, you won’t understand (see slide 52 to 65 for Swoop business strategy here: https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-we...vestor-day.pdf).

Qantas does this well with Jetstar, 72 mentions of Jetstar in the 2018 Qantas annual report https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuil...Report-ASX.pdf

All the Lexus performance is fully embedded in the Toyota annual report and financials: https://global.toyota/en/filedownload/27776814

With BMW for it’s wholly owned subsidiary brands, the same as with Qantas/Jetstar, WestJet/Swoop, Toyota/Lexus, too: https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam...315_ONLINE.pdf
If I go back to my original comment. Swoop had a service recovery problem, one where their initial response was out of touch with what anyone would consider remotely reasonable. Myself, the press, the passengers on that flight that we interviewed by the press and a host of others are all saying WestJets owns that issue and responsible for making it right. Despite all the marketing and branding it is the company called WestJet. WestJet can do all the branding magic it wants to make Swoop look like its not part of WestJet, but it is.

I agree that WestJet and Swoop have different business models and chasing a different customer base. The same way as Wyndham Grant and Super 8 are quite different but still brands owned by the same company. That does not change who is accountable for the service failure.

WestJet's attempt to insulate itself from the service failures of Swoop will simply fail.

Last edited by Fiordland; Sep 6, 2019 at 12:13 am
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Old Sep 5, 2019, 11:34 pm
  #88  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
If I was the steward of a billion dollar brand I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I was working with people who thought that way.

A good or service only becomes fungible after differentiation has been removed, and in everything WestJet has done in recent years they're stripping away differentiation. And that isn't just at the Swoop/Basic level, the new 787 business class cabin is a wonderful approximation of Air Canada's modern widebody business class cabin. Does Canada need an identically specced and identically priced business class service? probably not.
The brand value in airlines these days is mostly aligned with financial performance as most products offered from basic tickets to most business class is a commodity with no differentiation on the majority of tickets. Many airlines and other well know companies have thought their brand overcomes an inflexible business model in the past, before they get into financial trouble and go out of business. Keeping a strong brand is important, but it isn’t just built on reputation. The two brands I liked a lot that fell into this pit were Wardair and Woodwards.

If you look at the brand value of Ryanair, it is about the same as WestJet at about €1.5bn on revenues of €7bn in 2018 (https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ands-1.3063395), for 21% of revenue in brand value. Westjet brand at $1bn on $4.7bn revenue is also 21% revenue in brand value. American Airlines has the highest brand value of airlines worldwide, and the overall ranking is quite aligned with the order of revenue: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jennyso.../#2e123b3040ee

Originally Posted by Error 601
Everyone and their dog in the US knows that Southwest still has two free checked bags.
.
The funny thing about Southwest’s free bags is that originally when other US airlines started charging for bags, Southwest couldn’t due to the inflexibility of their 1970’s PSS system called Cowboy, which they only managed to replace with Amadeus Altea in 2017. The system was a stripped version of the original American Airlines Sabre system that required a significant portion of their large IT dept to support and machine coders to make changes. The inflexibility of this system was also a major if not the major reason that the Southwest-WestJet codeshare agreement was abandoned in 2010 after the issues of Cowboy integration became apparent.

So “2 bags fly for free” was really all they could do until Altea as a modern PSS system was implemented.

Originally Posted by Error 601
Air Canada hasn't had much goodwill left to lose in my lifetime, I had to sit through a presentation a few years ago that had Air Canada wallowing around with cable companies and Quebec public utilities. WestJet was held up with Lululemon and VW (this was pre-emissions scandal).

I just hope what comes out the other-side of this transformation doesn't irritate me as much as Air Canada and United irritate me.
WestJet I’m sure will try hard to keep customer care as good as possible, but not at the expense of being profitable and using Swoop as a defensive brand to meet specific market needs. Air Canada under Calin has also put more of a focus on customer service, at the moment I fly most weeks per month with them and every other month with WestJet. The biggest differentiator I see and monitor at the moment is that WestJet has OTP under much better control, but service wise they are both decent compared with many airlines. There are lots of ex-WestJet people I meet on my commute that now work for Air Canada and vice-versa, so the fundamentals of how each operates isn’t a mystery between each company.

Last edited by aerobod; Sep 5, 2019 at 11:41 pm
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Old Sep 6, 2019, 3:51 pm
  #89  
 
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Originally Posted by aerobod
WestJet I’m sure will try hard to keep customer care as good as possible, but not at the expense of being profitable and using Swoop as a defensive brand to meet specific market needs. Air Canada under Calin has also put more of a focus on customer service, at the moment I fly most weeks per month with them and every other month with WestJet.
I sure hope you're right. I had to cancel a WestJet flight earlier this week and the entire call took less than five minutes including hold time. I spent two hours on the phone after a United flight got cancelled and they couldn't re-ticket me on an Air Canada operated alternative for reasons even the supposed "ticketing supervisor" couldn't figure out. I had to accept a worse United operated alternative because if I hung-up they would have to start all over again.

If Gerry Schwartz wants to ride off into the sunset pretending to be Richard Branson WestJet just might be in for some exciting years. If Onex just wants to sweat the assets it could be just brutal.
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Old Sep 6, 2019, 6:18 pm
  #90  
 
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Originally Posted by Error 601
If Gerry Schwartz wants to ride off into the sunset pretending to be Richard Branson WestJet just might be in for some exciting years. If Onex just wants to sweat the assets it could be just brutal.
I think he will want to strategically invest and expand, as he is already paying 60% over the previous market valuation, so won't get the level of return over the price premium easily, by just sweating the assets. He also may have a bit of a vendetta against Air Canada still after his failed hostile takeover bid in the late '90s, so building a comparable airline in size and scope may be the legacy he is looking for, but from his record I would say he would do this pragmatically as opposed to rashly.

As a WestJet retiree I'm looking forward to using my flight privileges over much more of the globe than they extend to at the moment
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