That's how negotiations work. Neither side is going to show their hand. Both sides will get as close to the deadline as possible to extract as much benefit for themselves as possible.

Yes and no...
 

....the YYZ-YWG were about the same but the YYZ-YVR was maybe 15% cheaper...but they did have one of their twice weekly sales on offer, so it could have been just that.

Agreed. As I said, it takes finesse. If you handle it in a ham-fisted way it can blow up on you really quickly. It's not that hard to get those in Group 3 and even some in Group 2 to move into Group 4.

Exactly right, and my guess is management will make a deal with ALPA at the 12th hour....

It's a case of "who blinks first?" and with a strike mandate like that, it WILL be management.

The latest update posted at www.wjpilotfacts.com sure doesn’t look good. It’s obviously one-sided but if the facts are as presented it doesn’t sound like the union is negotiating in good faith.

I talked to someone fairly high up within WestJet on Tuesday and they didn't think a strike is likely because a strike won't derail the launch of Swoop.

Perhaps someone with expertise in this area is reading and can comment. I find this kind of website to be interesting. It seems to undermine the ALPA and communicating directly with pilots which I would have thought could be seen as union busting.

hard to believe this type of activity is likely to settle things fast.

Communicating with unionized employees in Canada who are bargaining is pretty straight forward, just don't make any threats, be misleading, force anyone to listen or entertain hypothetical discussions.

Not at all unusual, both side want to paint themselves as the "good guy & reasonable". There are always two sides to every labour dispute and each side will try to make the other side look selfish and demanding as well as have the other employees put peer pressure on the employee group that is trying to get a deal. As ugly as this may look now, it's amazing how fast the two sides can come together once the strike deadline approaches the zero hour.

With respect to ALPA this is not the case. ALPA is run by pilots for pilots. The negotiating committee comprises of pilots, the associated committees are run by pilots. All positions are elected by pilots with terms subject to re-election. They ARE at the table. ALPA supports the pilot group through expertise of various means.

And the postal union is run by mailmen, and the auto workers union is run by auto workers, and the nurses union is run by nurses, and so on and so on.

That absolutely does not mean that what’s in the union’s best interest is identical to what’s in the “real” employees’ best interest. The pro-union pilots/mailmen/autoworkers running the unions have a big interest in the union’s success (since the union is its own separate entity, with its own money and politics and hierarchy).

It’s all too often a game. Two seats at the table for three parties, with both the union and the employer claiming (and probably legitimately believing) that each has the employees’ best interests at heart. And both sides dig in their heels to fight for what’s “right” ... when the final settlement is probably no different than what it would have been without a union and without a strike.

WestJet customers lose.
WestJet loses.
WestJet pilots lose $ from their pockets in the form of union dues (w probably very little incremental benefit compared to what it’s cost them.)
Union and union reps are the only winners - power, influence, and a bank account full of their members’ money - in what’s otherwise an unwinnable game.

No aviation experience, but I have been on the management side in these types of negotiations. The people across the table are regular every day employees who have day jobs and reflect the majority or are they? Usually they get into that position because they have a keen interest in the union and the outcome of the bargaining. Sometimes that is aligned with the majority and sometimes there are some weird conflicts of interest and special interests at play. I have had the case where they negotiate a deal and they committee can't sell it to the membership because it is to complicated.

The committee likely also has one or more advisers. Why do they need advisers? Because they are negotiating labor rules. First contract they are going to need to sort out progressive discipline, benefits, maternity leave, jury duty, and a long laundry list of stuff that needs to make its way into that contract.

A first contract is going to be slow.....

That's a good analysis from what I know, especially with ALPA and in fact other pilots Associations. ACPA (AC) APA (AA) and even SouthWest of whom WS modelled itself after has a pilot association which is similar to ALPA. ALPA being the largest pilot association, is very much involved in airline and passenger safety, flight & duty times, training and standards etc and all are run by Pilots of their associated airline. Labour expertise is utilized especially in contract negotiations but the negotiating committee is comprised of appointed and elected pilots from their own airline. Usually the key pilot figures are excused from flying duties while they function in the ALPA leadership roles.