WestJet to launch ultra-low-cost carrier 'Swoop’
Feb 11, 2018, 11:14 pm
#181
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Vancouver
Programs: Aeroplan, Mileage Plus, WestJet Gold, AMEX Plat
Posts: 2,026
Using 20 year old 156 seat 737-400's....?
Back in the day, there were no shortage of 737-200 LCC operators, (starting with SWA), but then again, oil was under $20 a bbl.
How many 737-400 LCC / ULCC operators can you think of in the world today? And how many are operating with 156 seats?
And going head to head with 3 year old 737-800's with 189 seats?
Talk about an operating cost mis-match. It's not even close.
At least Porter managed to develop a monopoly airport, and made a fortune selling real estate, making the day to day viability of flight ops a moot point.
Flair has nothing of the sort.
It's no wonder Jim Rogers pulled the chute on taking any market risk on the operation. Anyone sinking capital into that operation needs their head examined and deserves to lose their wad.
Back in the day, there were no shortage of 737-200 LCC operators, (starting with SWA), but then again, oil was under $20 a bbl.
How many 737-400 LCC / ULCC operators can you think of in the world today? And how many are operating with 156 seats?
And going head to head with 3 year old 737-800's with 189 seats?
Talk about an operating cost mis-match. It's not even close.
At least Porter managed to develop a monopoly airport, and made a fortune selling real estate, making the day to day viability of flight ops a moot point.
Flair has nothing of the sort.
It's no wonder Jim Rogers pulled the chute on taking any market risk on the operation. Anyone sinking capital into that operation needs their head examined and deserves to lose their wad.
There is that weird operator out of Las Vegas with those old MD aircraft.
Feb 12, 2018, 8:17 am
#182
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 797
Flair use to be in the business of having old aircraft (likely long paid for) sitting around doing nothing most of the time and running some charters for oil companies or the Canadian military or who have you.
There is that weird operator out of Las Vegas with those old MD aircraft.
There is that weird operator out of Las Vegas with those old MD aircraft.
Flair's old aircraft are owned by the fellow next door, who is well known for having been one of the most successful aviation entrepreneurs in Canada. He didn't get there by leasing airplanes, even to long time friends, for nothing.
I'll guarantee you Flair's paying at least US$100k a month for those birds, not to mention a pretty high hourly reserve fee in order to keep them maintained and flying somewhat reliably. Those hourly reserves are based on a certain number of block hours flown per month with minimums and maximums. You can't make those economics work flying them 5.5 hours a day like some of those old clapped out MD80's you see sitting on in the weeds at LAS, AZA and elsewhere. And ask any FAA inspector about Allegiant off the record. I did over a 2 hour coffee session in Scottsdale a couple of weeks ago, and trust me, it was an eye opener.
Those old birds do not have trans-con range at full density, (189 seats), and have no economics at 156 seats. They suck gas compared to NG's. They can't operate with any sort of reliability beyond about 260 hours a month, and even then, require a higher number "reserve" aircraft sitting in the weeds to maintain the sched. With that seat capacity, they require an extra flight attendant, (in essence for 6 seats). Adding all that up, even at $100k a month ownership expense, (but not maintenance expense including aging aircraft mods and AD's, not to mention the much higher cost to deal with the CFM engines vs old -200 P&W's), the aircraft they have are about as high cost as you can get, which is why Flair / New Leaf have struggled on the bottom line and management has changed 3 times as the next batch of dreamers and schemers take a run at it.
Sure, Flair could ditch the -400's, pay the lessor a penalty, and those birds would likely be converted into cargo haulers. But switching to new aircraft would require a considerably different capital structure. If the business was viable, that would have been established long ago, they'd have been able to raise C$40-$50m with ease in Toronto and New York, (bearing in mind that 22 years ago, WJ needed about c$28m to get into the game in a much different regulatory and operating environment) and Flair's fleet transition would already be well underway.
It isn't.
Jim Rogers, as stalwart an aviation guy as there is, who's been around the game for close to 40 years pulled the 'chute after less than a year of trying to run it whilst taking the economic risk. Cash flow only lasts for so long. How many times have we seen that before?
Swoop's launch will have made the sphincters of 99% of potential ULCC investors in Canada and the US irrevocably tighten. The appetite to get into the game facing Swoop, who, regardless of the pilot outcome, will be dramatically lower cost than WJ mainline, is only for incredibly high risk tolerant investors. That sort of investor, even in this day and age, is very, very difficult to find.
I think that pretty much tells you all you need to know.
I certainly wouldn't want to risk my summer travel plans on a Flair booking, unless I had a solid Plan B up my sleeve.
Last edited by HangTen; Feb 12, 2018 at 8:30 am
Feb 12, 2018, 11:05 am
#183
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Vancouver
Programs: Aeroplan, Mileage Plus, WestJet Gold, AMEX Plat
Posts: 2,026
Flair's old aircraft are owned by the fellow next door, who is well known for having been one of the most successful aviation entrepreneurs in Canada. He didn't get there by leasing airplanes, even to long time friends, for nothing.
I'll guarantee you Flair's paying at least US$100k a month for those birds, not to mention a pretty high hourly reserve fee in order to keep them maintained and flying somewhat reliably. Those hourly reserves are based on a certain number of block hours flown per month with minimums and maximums. You can't make those economics work flying them 5.5 hours a day like some of those old clapped out MD80's you see sitting on in the weeds at LAS, AZA and elsewhere. And ask any FAA inspector about Allegiant off the record. I did over a 2 hour coffee session in Scottsdale a couple of weeks ago, and trust me, it was an eye opener.
Those old birds do not have trans-con range at full density, (189 seats), and have no economics at 156 seats. They suck gas compared to NG's. They can't operate with any sort of reliability beyond about 260 hours a month, and even then, require a higher number "reserve" aircraft sitting in the weeds to maintain the sched. With that seat capacity, they require an extra flight attendant, (in essence for 6 seats). Adding all that up, even at $100k a month ownership expense, (but not maintenance expense including aging aircraft mods and AD's, not to mention the much higher cost to deal with the CFM engines vs old -200 P&W's), the aircraft they have are about as high cost as you can get, which is why Flair / New Leaf have struggled on the bottom line and management has changed 3 times as the next batch of dreamers and schemers take a run at it.
Sure, Flair could ditch the -400's, pay the lessor a penalty, and those birds would likely be converted into cargo haulers. But switching to new aircraft would require a considerably different capital structure. If the business was viable, that would have been established long ago, they'd have been able to raise C$40-$50m with ease in Toronto and New York, (bearing in mind that 22 years ago, WJ needed about c$28m to get into the game in a much different regulatory and operating environment) and Flair's fleet transition would already be well underway.
It isn't.
Jim Rogers, as stalwart an aviation guy as there is, who's been around the game for close to 40 years pulled the 'chute after less than a year of trying to run it whilst taking the economic risk. Cash flow only lasts for so long. How many times have we seen that before?
Swoop's launch will have made the sphincters of 99% of potential ULCC investors in Canada and the US irrevocably tighten. The appetite to get into the game facing Swoop, who, regardless of the pilot outcome, will be dramatically lower cost than WJ mainline, is only for incredibly high risk tolerant investors. That sort of investor, even in this day and age, is very, very difficult to find.
I think that pretty much tells you all you need to know.
I certainly wouldn't want to risk my summer travel plans on a Flair booking, unless I had a solid Plan B up my sleeve.
I'll guarantee you Flair's paying at least US$100k a month for those birds, not to mention a pretty high hourly reserve fee in order to keep them maintained and flying somewhat reliably. Those hourly reserves are based on a certain number of block hours flown per month with minimums and maximums. You can't make those economics work flying them 5.5 hours a day like some of those old clapped out MD80's you see sitting on in the weeds at LAS, AZA and elsewhere. And ask any FAA inspector about Allegiant off the record. I did over a 2 hour coffee session in Scottsdale a couple of weeks ago, and trust me, it was an eye opener.
Those old birds do not have trans-con range at full density, (189 seats), and have no economics at 156 seats. They suck gas compared to NG's. They can't operate with any sort of reliability beyond about 260 hours a month, and even then, require a higher number "reserve" aircraft sitting in the weeds to maintain the sched. With that seat capacity, they require an extra flight attendant, (in essence for 6 seats). Adding all that up, even at $100k a month ownership expense, (but not maintenance expense including aging aircraft mods and AD's, not to mention the much higher cost to deal with the CFM engines vs old -200 P&W's), the aircraft they have are about as high cost as you can get, which is why Flair / New Leaf have struggled on the bottom line and management has changed 3 times as the next batch of dreamers and schemers take a run at it.
Sure, Flair could ditch the -400's, pay the lessor a penalty, and those birds would likely be converted into cargo haulers. But switching to new aircraft would require a considerably different capital structure. If the business was viable, that would have been established long ago, they'd have been able to raise C$40-$50m with ease in Toronto and New York, (bearing in mind that 22 years ago, WJ needed about c$28m to get into the game in a much different regulatory and operating environment) and Flair's fleet transition would already be well underway.
It isn't.
Jim Rogers, as stalwart an aviation guy as there is, who's been around the game for close to 40 years pulled the 'chute after less than a year of trying to run it whilst taking the economic risk. Cash flow only lasts for so long. How many times have we seen that before?
Swoop's launch will have made the sphincters of 99% of potential ULCC investors in Canada and the US irrevocably tighten. The appetite to get into the game facing Swoop, who, regardless of the pilot outcome, will be dramatically lower cost than WJ mainline, is only for incredibly high risk tolerant investors. That sort of investor, even in this day and age, is very, very difficult to find.
I think that pretty much tells you all you need to know.
I certainly wouldn't want to risk my summer travel plans on a Flair booking, unless I had a solid Plan B up my sleeve.
Feb 12, 2018, 11:26 am
#184
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Canada
Programs: Marriott Plat; Air Canada E75K; Westjet Platinum
Posts: 1,161
With that prediction by HangTen, Flair should have folded 2 years ago. How dare they still flying today and expanding? If the economics is so dire, people are so dumb to start a new airline, failure is guaranteed, why did WJ feel so threatened and compelled to go all out and start Swoop? Don't they have better things to do? bigger fish to fry - such as focusing on their 787 global expansion? Wouldn't the better strategy from WJ's POV is to sit back, relax, and let all those new upstarts foolishly jump into the game and "fail within 6 months - guaranteed", right? or the prediction is by summer Flair would disappear, right?
Thankfully, all those Canadian who already booked Flair don't feel as pessimistic as you do. Our friends already booked 4 trips in the next 4 months on Flair. Again, these are new passengers who wouldn't have flown either AC or WJ. New market, new demand. I am cheering them to succeed.
Thankfully, all those Canadian who already booked Flair don't feel as pessimistic as you do. Our friends already booked 4 trips in the next 4 months on Flair. Again, these are new passengers who wouldn't have flown either AC or WJ. New market, new demand. I am cheering them to succeed.
Last edited by Sunny Day; Feb 12, 2018 at 11:32 am
Feb 12, 2018, 12:21 pm
#185
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 797
Cheer all you like, but that won’t help Flair’s economics.
Its one thing to have to go head to head with mainline WJ, it’s a whole new world having to go head to head with high density, 3 year old -800’s with split scimitars and much simplified systems.
WJ goes back to its roots, and probably what it does best with a cost structure that allows them to get down and very. Dirty, and make a good dollar in doing so.
The world changed, Jim saw it and made the correct move.
Its one thing to have to go head to head with mainline WJ, it’s a whole new world having to go head to head with high density, 3 year old -800’s with split scimitars and much simplified systems.
WJ goes back to its roots, and probably what it does best with a cost structure that allows them to get down and very. Dirty, and make a good dollar in doing so.
The world changed, Jim saw it and made the correct move.
Feb 12, 2018, 1:08 pm
#186
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Canada
Programs: Marriott Plat; Air Canada E75K; Westjet Platinum
Posts: 1,161
HangTen, I see your POV on cost structure and all of Swoop. For discussion sake, let me ask again, why doesn't WJ just sit back, relax and let those crazy upstarts launch and knowing they are guaranteed to fail in a short time? Why do all that work to launch Swoop when you know no one else will be able to match your cost structure and will guaranteed to fail within 6 months?
Feb 12, 2018, 4:18 pm
#187
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Vancouver
Programs: Aeroplan, Mileage Plus, WestJet Gold, AMEX Plat
Posts: 2,026
HangTen, I see your POV on cost structure and all of Swoop. For discussion sake, let me ask again, why doesn't WJ just sit back, relax and let those crazy upstarts launch and knowing they are guaranteed to fail in a short time? Why do all that work to launch Swoop when you know no one else will be able to match your cost structure and will guaranteed to fail within 6 months?
Flair has been in business since 2005. I would expect if they discover they can't make money doing this they will do what CanJet did and go back to being a charter airline moving airline workers and the military around.
Feb 19, 2018, 4:28 pm
#188
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 150
My guess is that WestJet does not want a replay of the Jetsgo days. They were pooh pooed in the early days with predictions of an early demise. Jetsgo lasted much longer , got much bigger and harmed yields more than anyone at WestJet thought was possible. There were some worried faces in the Head Shed a few years on. The law of economics eventually asserted itself , but I think WestJet learned a hard lesson.
Best to nip these ULCC's in the bud.
Best to nip these ULCC's in the bud.
Feb 20, 2018, 11:27 pm
#189
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Edmonton, AB, Canada
Programs: AC 75K, Hertz President’s Circle, Accor Gold, Hilton Gold, Marriott Gold
Posts: 10,067
I was told by a friend with inside connections at Westjet that Swoop has no pilots and that ALPA will blacklist any pilot who goes over to fly non union for Swoop. I suspect it maybe Westjet flying these Swoop routes in June 
ALPA Takes Legal Action Against WestJet and WestJet Encore
The ULP complaint and application for an interim order assert that WestJet and WestJet Encore management violated numerous provisions of the Canada Labour Code by, among other things:
https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...673568123.html
The ULP complaint and application for an interim order assert that WestJet and WestJet Encore management violated numerous provisions of the Canada Labour Code by, among other things:
- Directly negotiating with pilots instead of with the union over key terms and conditions of employment at Swoop, an ultra-low-cost alter-ego airline which is slated to begin flying this summer;
https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...673568123.html
Feb 21, 2018, 3:04 pm
#190
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: YVR TLS
Programs: Air France Flying Blue, Altitude SE-100k, AAdvantage, United Mileage Plus, WS rewards, BonVoy Titan
Posts: 912
I'm hearing all is not well in the WJA kingdom...re: pilots verses management
Feb 21, 2018, 3:19 pm
#191
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Canada
Programs: Marriott Plat; Air Canada E75K; Westjet Platinum
Posts: 1,161
Things are going to get interesting - with the expansion with 787 jets and pressure from Flair on many routes. I find WJ like AC these days, it is a bit of hit and miss. Your happiness and enjoyment on the ground and in the air will entirely depend on the WJ employee you are dealing with at that moment. It used to be a lot more reliable and consistent in the past, not anymore. But those good WJ staff are really good I have to say.
Feb 23, 2018, 9:33 pm
#192
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: PHX
Programs: AAexp, AC75k, HertzPC, NationalEE, Accor/MariottP, Hilton/HyattG
Posts: 3,613
Flair is absolutely garbage. Don't ever book. Swoop will handled WAY better as they have Westjet behind them, money, agents and planes to rebook on the routes on WS.
Here's some Flair for you:
Had two girls book YEG-YWG-YEG on Flair to save $100 compared to WS/AC. They reschedule outbound 4 days later to an earlier morning flight. Can't take it as they have presentation/meetings. They offer refund, no rebook nothing. Spend $800 on top of flair booking to book AC.
Get an email saying return also now has schedule change 2 days out. No email on what time. Spent all weekend(total 9 hours on hold), no answer. Got hung up on two times after being on hold for several hours. Get to airport early they say bookings don't exist, and flight sure enough delayed super late until 10PM... Rebook on AC spend another $1200.
Another girl flew AC LAX-YYZ-YWG. Return booked flight with flair YWG-YEG to fly back with girls. Never get a confirmation email after booking online and paying. Also on hold for hours. No response. Same time as the girls, go to airport and booking don't exist LOL. Book last minute AC flight spends $600.
After emailing them, calling them, and tweeting, instagramming, they just straight ignored us. Finally get a hold of agent after combined 15ish hours on hold. Offered $100 credit each pax for future FLAIR booking plus refund LOL like they would ever fly them again. One of the girls tells agent "stay on the line, need to talk to my friend if that's good enough". CSR guy says "I'm not a dog" and hangs up. Tried calling back, on hold again for 2 hours so gave up. How about the $2600 they spent on AC? NEVER book them to save $100, you'll pay 10x more.
Fast forward a few days, find out another friend booked YEG-YVR-YEG. she freaks out because she sees my posts about Flair and calls me night before departure, saying she can't check in online, code not found. Goes to airport 2 hours before departure, able to check in but Flair cancels the flight 1.5 hours out... $400 last minute OW AC trip booked. She is supposed to fly back with flair but worried return will be the same. What a joke. Tried calling them, on hold for 2 hours and got hung up on. Good way to start a Vacation.
LOL!!! I've never personally booked ULCC and never will, but after this, I'll be telling EVERYONE I meet in Canada who talks about Flair to stay far, far away. Disgraceful, embarrassing and just plain sad of a ULCC. Canadian too lol.
Swoop at least will have WS planes to rebook on.
Only positive is the routes Flair fly, AC/WS have come close to matching those prices so we can enjoy those until these guys fold this summer when Swoop launches
Here's some Flair for you:
Had two girls book YEG-YWG-YEG on Flair to save $100 compared to WS/AC. They reschedule outbound 4 days later to an earlier morning flight. Can't take it as they have presentation/meetings. They offer refund, no rebook nothing. Spend $800 on top of flair booking to book AC.
Get an email saying return also now has schedule change 2 days out. No email on what time. Spent all weekend(total 9 hours on hold), no answer. Got hung up on two times after being on hold for several hours. Get to airport early they say bookings don't exist, and flight sure enough delayed super late until 10PM... Rebook on AC spend another $1200.
Another girl flew AC LAX-YYZ-YWG. Return booked flight with flair YWG-YEG to fly back with girls. Never get a confirmation email after booking online and paying. Also on hold for hours. No response. Same time as the girls, go to airport and booking don't exist LOL. Book last minute AC flight spends $600.
After emailing them, calling them, and tweeting, instagramming, they just straight ignored us. Finally get a hold of agent after combined 15ish hours on hold. Offered $100 credit each pax for future FLAIR booking plus refund LOL like they would ever fly them again. One of the girls tells agent "stay on the line, need to talk to my friend if that's good enough". CSR guy says "I'm not a dog" and hangs up. Tried calling back, on hold again for 2 hours so gave up. How about the $2600 they spent on AC? NEVER book them to save $100, you'll pay 10x more.
Fast forward a few days, find out another friend booked YEG-YVR-YEG. she freaks out because she sees my posts about Flair and calls me night before departure, saying she can't check in online, code not found. Goes to airport 2 hours before departure, able to check in but Flair cancels the flight 1.5 hours out... $400 last minute OW AC trip booked. She is supposed to fly back with flair but worried return will be the same. What a joke. Tried calling them, on hold for 2 hours and got hung up on. Good way to start a Vacation.
LOL!!! I've never personally booked ULCC and never will, but after this, I'll be telling EVERYONE I meet in Canada who talks about Flair to stay far, far away. Disgraceful, embarrassing and just plain sad of a ULCC. Canadian too lol.
Swoop at least will have WS planes to rebook on.
Only positive is the routes Flair fly, AC/WS have come close to matching those prices so we can enjoy those until these guys fold this summer when Swoop launches
Last edited by SKYEG; Feb 23, 2018 at 9:43 pm
Feb 24, 2018, 12:11 pm
#193
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Canada
Programs: Marriott Plat; Air Canada E75K; Westjet Platinum
Posts: 1,161
My friend's experience on Flair has been opposite of yours. Swoop will not rebook their passengers onto WJ or WJ encore. They are separate companies. There is no such thing as WJ stepping in to back up Swoop if things go wrong on a flight.
Feb 24, 2018, 1:06 pm
#194
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 797
You can rest assured that WJ iron will be made available to recover from IROP situations. I doubt Swoop will be calling Flair for additional lift.....
Feb 24, 2018, 1:37 pm
#195
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: PHX
Programs: AAexp, AC75k, HertzPC, NationalEE, Accor/MariottP, Hilton/HyattG
Posts: 3,613
Very hard to believe anyone could have an extreme positive experience on an ULCC, so please explain how your friend's experience was "opposite" of ours, as that means they had an exceptional, above and beyond experience compared to the dismal service we received.
