Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Virgin Australia | Velocity
Reload this Page >

some very poor load factors in school holidays

some very poor load factors in school holidays

Old Oct 9, 2020, 10:21 am
  #16  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Singapore
Programs: QF LTG, SQ EGTP, Bonvoy LTG
Posts: 4,834
As I said, new company. Bigger things to worry about. You don’t make up strategy on the run to fill a few planes during a couple of weeks. Longer term things at play. Whether or not they fill these flights in their first month of acquiring the leftovers of VA1 is not material to how the company looks in 4-5 years when they try to flip (sell) it.
lokijuh is offline  
Old Oct 9, 2020, 5:49 pm
  #17  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by lokijuh
As I said, new company. Bigger things to worry about. You don’t make up strategy on the run to fill a few planes during a couple of weeks. Longer term things at play. Whether or not they fill these flights in their first month of acquiring the leftovers of VA1 is not material to how the company looks in 4-5 years when they try to flip (sell) it.
couldn't disagree more. When does bain start getting serious ?

Don't they have anyone in yield management ? (computers obviously can't do it alone, as proven by insanely low fares, computer starting spitting up near start of corona.

Xmas school holidays in Qld start in 5 weeks !!!!!!!!
OZFLYER86 is offline  
Old Oct 9, 2020, 6:28 pm
  #18  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: MEL CHC
Posts: 20,920
Still extremely surprised the OP does not offer his/her airline management skills to Bain/VA2.0 and package tour operators.
Mwenenzi is offline  
Old Oct 9, 2020, 6:51 pm
  #19  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by Mwenenzi
Still extremely surprised the OP does not offer his/her airline management skills to Bain/VA2.0 and package tour operators.
getting bit repetitive, but rule 1 is try to fill aircraft, without having too many loss leader fares & without .......ising the fares. Hidden fares eg. in packages, mean the fares are not .......ised & no benchmark is set in public mind.

I had some idiot say to me, when they saw $100 fare SYD/MEL aren't all seats(in economy) that price ?

Wholesalers could put it in terms like, pay this airfare & get 3 free nights at eg. hilton. Obviously the hilton isn't free, but the airline in peoples minds, isn't discounting, the hotel is.

It's all psychology, not mathematics.
OZFLYER86 is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 9:26 pm
  #20  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Programs: Krisflyer
Posts: 582
It seems to me VA aren't trying very hard to be competitive. Sure, the QLD border rules depressed travel but even now they aren't a good alternative to Qantas.

1) their website https://travel.virginaustralia.com/au/domestic-schedule isn't an accurate reflection of the flights they offer (some routes are now daily but this page hasn't been updated) - how do you get customers when your website tells them you don't have availability?
2) still only offering water in flight, whereas Qantas have restored juice, tea, coffee etc
3) lounges still closed
4) still not operating the very popular CBR-SYD route (Qantas have had very good yields on this route lately)

I have to travel to BNE next month and would normally take VA (as an SQ Gold) but Qantas are clearly a better option even without status.
onlySIA is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 9:52 pm
  #21  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by onlySIA
It seems to me VA aren't trying very hard to be competitive. Sure, the QLD border rules depressed travel but even now they aren't a good alternative to Qantas.

1) their website https://travel.virginaustralia.com/au/domestic-schedule isn't an accurate reflection of the flights they offer (some routes are now daily but this page hasn't been updated) - how do you get customers when your website tells them you don't have availability?
2) still only offering water in flight, whereas Qantas have restored juice, tea, coffee etc
3) lounges still closed
4) still not operating the very popular CBR-SYD route (Qantas have had very good yields on this route lately)

I have to travel to BNE next month and would normally take VA (as an SQ Gold) but Qantas are clearly a better option even without status.
agree except they are handing out mueslie bars.

The booking website is very clunky. Seems to need more clicks. Why can't number of people be on same page as from & to like most websites. Hope it's temporary.

CBR/SYD ? Use jets ? No ATRs. or get Alliance to do it, with 80 seater F70s or 100 seat F100s ? F50s could also do it & although old, they don't look it, at least on inside.
OZFLYER86 is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 10:04 pm
  #22  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Singapore
Programs: QF LTG, SQ EGTP, Bonvoy LTG
Posts: 4,834
Originally Posted by onlySIA
It seems to me VA aren't trying very hard to be competitive. Sure, the QLD border rules depressed travel but even now they aren't a good alternative to Qantas.

1) their website https://travel.virginaustralia.com/au/domestic-schedule isn't an accurate reflection of the flights they offer (some routes are now daily but this page hasn't been updated) - how do you get customers when your website tells them you don't have availability?
2) still only offering water in flight, whereas Qantas have restored juice, tea, coffee etc
3) lounges still closed
4) still not operating the very popular CBR-SYD route (Qantas have had very good yields on this route lately)

I have to travel to BNE next month and would normally take VA (as an SQ Gold) but Qantas are clearly a better option even without status.
I'd suggest Bain are still developing their concept of where they will pitch VA2. They have already have suggested things will be different with VA2. They have intimated they are willing to cede market share to QF at the top of the market, as it was clear from JB's program that the things desired to compete with QF were very expensive, but didn't necessarily drive enough revenue to support the offering.

At the moment whilst everything is operating on bare bones (i.e. with minimal interstate travel), whilst they are sorting out their strategy, cost structure (deals with unions), etc, there won't be too many changes in the short term..

Time will tell.
lokijuh is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 10:14 pm
  #23  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: Amtrak Guest Rewards (SE), Virgin America Elevate, Hyatt Gold Passport (Platinum), VIA Preference
Posts: 3,134
How long ago did the border controls come down? I suspect there's some lag at play (especially with the economy being a bit of a mess overall).
GrayAnderson is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 10:21 pm
  #24  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: MEL CHC
Posts: 20,920
Originally Posted by GrayAnderson
How long ago did the border controls come down? I suspect there's some lag at play (especially with the economy being a bit of a mess overall).
Most AU state border controls have not come down. The main VIC-QLD and NSW-QLD state borders are closed (by QLD). ScoMo recently spent 14 days in the ACT that then allowed him to go to QLD without a 14 day hotel isolation.

The AU country border is still very closed to all except AU citizens and some others by exception. Current indications is will be that way for a least 6 months and maybe 12 months. Other than AU<--->NZ.

Last edited by Mwenenzi; Oct 11, 2020 at 12:36 pm Reason: Added "Other than AU<--->NZ"
Mwenenzi is offline  
Old Oct 10, 2020, 10:30 pm
  #25  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by lokijuh
I'd suggest Bain are still developing their concept of where they will pitch VA2. They have already have suggested things will be different with VA2. They have intimated they are willing to cede market share to QF at the top of the market, as it was clear from JB's program that the things desired to compete with QF were very expensive, but didn't necessarily drive enough revenue to support the offering.

At the moment whilst everything is operating on bare bones (i.e. with minimal interstate travel), whilst they are sorting out their strategy, cost structure (deals with unions), etc, there won't be too many changes in the short term..

Time will tell.
How many more months do they need ?

Seems to be plenty of intrastate flights in Qld, by QF, JQ & VA. Rex flying the golden triangle in just over 4 1/2 months with lower costs & probably with virgin mark 1 aircraft & crews, so they can say, hey same aircraft, same crews, lower prices.
OZFLYER86 is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2020, 1:33 am
  #26  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Singapore
Programs: QF LTG, SQ EGTP, Bonvoy LTG
Posts: 4,834
Originally Posted by OZFLYER86
Eg. on the VA flight BNE/CNS the 1st few bidders, might have been successful at $50. Then they told their friends, who weren't successful at $50, but got them for $60, then $70, $80

or even buy 1 for $70, buy 2 for $135, buy 3 for $190, but 4 for $240 etc.
Given the security charge of $5.82 and passenger service charge of $26.87, with GST leviable on both, that's $35.96 of the fare that VA doesn't see.. So for a $50 fare, that leaves $14.04, 1/11th of which will go to GST, leaving VA to pocket $12.76. Minus the cost of extra fuel needed to carry an extra 50-100kg of self loading freight and their luggage. Obviously, out of $70 they would get more, in this case $31. Also you want to avoid training consumers to expect either cheap airfares - or cheap packages. So there must be a point below which it is not worthwhile, unless you have strong ancilliary revenue (like JQ) to support it.
CPMaverick likes this.
lokijuh is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2020, 3:21 am
  #27  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: MEL
Programs: VA Plat QF Silv
Posts: 251
VA is still in administration, I would expect Bain is planning changes, but has not yet got the 'keys'
lokijuh likes this.
CorporateFlyer is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2020, 6:43 pm
  #28  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by lokijuh
Given the security charge of $5.82 and passenger service charge of $26.87, with GST leviable on both, that's $35.96 of the fare that VA doesn't see.. So for a $50 fare, that leaves $14.04, 1/11th of which will go to GST, leaving VA to pocket $12.76. Minus the cost of extra fuel needed to carry an extra 50-100kg of self loading freight and their luggage. Obviously, out of $70 they would get more, in this case $31. Also you want to avoid training consumers to expect either cheap airfares - or cheap packages. So there must be a point below which it is not worthwhile, unless you have strong ancilliary revenue (like JQ) to support it.
few things

1. in packages, public has not idea of airfare costs (as mentioned above, some of the components of a package can be described as free, some cheap, but the airfare doesn't have to be.

Eg. in the $499 package deal above, it could be described as

$299 return airfare & get the hotel (normally $200/night, for only $70/night, reef cruise only $90 $ & get rental car free)

or

The airline could actually be the packager, so it picks up commission on hotel, car, reef cruise.

Many do this now, but not with hidden individual component prices.

Buying components online is rarely the cheapest way to do it & selling components of package piecemeal, .......ises all the components.

The difference here, is the package only offer 1 or certain hotels, not any hotel.

In other words, want huge choice, pay for it.

2. the public & the media tend to notice if a flight is full or empty. Media reports such things, but have no idea of yields.
(ie. full flights MUST mean they are doing well, empty flight MUST mean they are going broke). There are plenty of full flights that make no money & plenty of flights with 50% load that make money, but public/media look at very simplistic view of load factor only.

With Virgin having lost billions, the public needs to hear the flights are full, especially at end of school holidays.
OZFLYER86 is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2020, 7:23 pm
  #29  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: GA
Programs: VA-PLT, QF-GLD, DL-GM, UA-ex1K, AA-exPLT, HH-DM, IHG-PLT, MR-GLD
Posts: 8,241
Originally Posted by OZFLYER86
few things

1. in packages, public has not idea of airfare costs
And yet, you pursue the topic with such confidence!

I'm pretty sure the AU public in general does not care one iota about what VA's load factors are. Let us know when these mainstream media bombshells hit the press, please
Mwenenzi and lokijuh like this.
CPMaverick is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2020, 7:34 pm
  #30  
Suspended
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 457
Originally Posted by CPMaverick
And yet, you pursue the topic with such confidence!

I'm pretty sure the AU public in general does not care one iota about what VA's load factors are. Let us know when these mainstream media bombshells hit the press, please
I'm pretty sure the AU public in general DO care what VA's load factors are.

Imagine a quiet news day. Reporter has a story about 17% load factor in virgin flights & wants a headline, which could be

Virgin empty flights (to grab attention) - he/she might even have a gripe about virgin.

The public then think, geez, I'd better not book with them, they might not be around next week/month/year, so I'll fly qantas, even though it'll cost more. It's a vicious circle.

We're not talking business travellers who don't care what they pay.

Am sure Bain are aiming for an IPO in 2, 3, 4 or 5 years time. Empty aircraft do not inspire confidence.
OZFLYER86 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.